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Article #48 (55 is last): From: ap748@cleveland.Freenet.Edu (Fred Horvat) Newsgroups: freenet.sci.comp.atari.time Subject: Atari Stock Holders Talk! Reply-To: ap748@cleveland.Freenet.Edu (Fred Horvat) Posted-By: xx004 (aa700 - Michael Current) Date: Tue Sep 20 13:07:25 1994 ========================================================================= (C) 1994 by Atari Corporation, GEnie, and the Atari Roundtables. May be reprinted only with this notice intact. The Atari Roundtables on GEnie are *official* information services of Atari Corporation. To sign up for GEnie service, call (with modem) 800-638-8369. Upon connection type HHH (RETURN after that). Wait for the U#= prompt.Type XTX99437,GENIE and press [RETURN]. The system will prompt you for your information. ========================================================================== ************ Topic 44 Thu Dec 17, 1992 BRIAN.H [ST~SysOp] at 00:41 EST Sub: ATARI Stock Holders, Let's talk!! Here is the place for discussion and information for stock holders and other interested parties of any news and events concerning ATARI stock. 206 message(s) total. ************ ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 1 Tue Mar 08, 1994 J.BRENNER1 [See Flat] at 19:19 EST Bob Brodie, >Having said that (and it was posted in fun, btw), I would like to ask you why >you would be so impressed with Microsoft becoming a Jaguar developer? They >have no track record with Sega, Nintendo, Neo-Geo, or any other home based >system that I'm aware of. I've been in arcades, but have yet to see a Video >Game produced by Microsoft there. In short...I don't see a reason to bring >them on board for a game system. Well, one good reason would be that Microsoft has just bought out Soft-Image. The most advanced graphics animation software developer in the world. Can we all say Jurasic Parc. Soft-mage is also very advanced in virtual reality research and development, and they are also working wacky audio stuff to make you fall off your chair when you here the rocket fly by. Was that one or three reasons? John B. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 2 Tue Mar 08, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 20:42 EST Bob B_ - - As you said, Atari "will go to the equity markets to raise cash." As I tried to explain to Tom of ICD, to an investor, "equity" means value which is left over for the owners after all other claims are accounted for. In practice, this means common stock. Guess I didn't explain very clearly. What you obviously mean is "capital markets", a more general term which includes all forms of long term funds like bonds, loans from big insurance companies (if they see Atari as credit worthy :-)), and/or, yes, common stock, and etc. This gives Atari a wide range of sources. As for "doing my research" to find out who some of these companies are in the press release ..., Bob, you don't understand. I don't care. It would make no difference to my Atari analysis if I knew them or not. Whoever they are, whatever capability they may or may not bring to Jaguar software, makes no difference to how I read the chart, and all the facets, good or bad, are reflected in the chart. I just have to read it properly. Of course, I do _hope_ they will do great things, but that's besides the point. To change the subject, .... nah, I don't care to get started once again on _that_ stuff. It belogs in some other place. --Sandy PS: I didn't realize last night that AEO was posting the entire press release. If I had realized that, I would not have put the list up here. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 3 Tue Mar 08, 1994 R.WATSON15 [Wayne Watson] at 22:28 EST You will be able to buy video games in a brown paper wrapper now. :-) Bob, Thanks for the reply. I read something and thought something was going to happen that may affect the stock somehow. Just wondering what it was, etc. If Microsoft bought out a company big in the Virtual reality area, you can forget about small headphone type devices to wear. They will now be bloated helmets bigger than motorcycle helmets and require an mainframe to drive the graphics fast enough. :-) ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 4 Tue Mar 08, 1994 AEO.MAG [!] FSU #1 [!] at 22:34 EST Sandy, | PS: I didn't realize last night that AEO was posting the entire press | release. If I had realized that, I would not have put the list up here. This BB is a place to share news. The press release is news, and should be shared. AEO does not have the exclusive right to bring out Atari news. We just -try- to be first. :) In other words, you did nothing wrong! Heaven forbid! Besides, AEO hasn't been released yet. --Travis P.S. As a favor to thos of us who get confused when all of the financial neepery gets deep here (not that I'm saying it shouldn't!...), could you and any other poster please add a tagline to your posts that sums up the "Good news/Bad news" aspect of any -news- you're passing along? After reading some posts in here, I'm not sure if what you're saying is "Good for Atari" or "Bad for Atari." Just a thought. :) ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 5 Tue Mar 08, 1994 TOWNS [John] at 22:51 EST Well, another smash sports game was just released for the Genesis and the Super NES: NBA Jam from Acclaim. Notice I didn't include Jaguar.
Bob.. please tell me someone at Atari is doing something about this situation. There are ALOT of people out there like me who play sports games (football and basketball mainly) and NOTHING but sports games! According to what I read somewhere recently, if you ignore the sports game segment of the market, you are loosing about 40% of all game sales! That's a significant piece of the pie if you ask me. I love the Jaguar and I am proud to say that I had something to do with making it happen. However, I won't put down my hard earned cash until Atari shows me it is going to give me sports games. Please, Bob.. tell me you are working on it. -- John PS. John is saving his nickels, hoping that Bob is going to come through for him! BTW.. If you haven't seen NBA Jams, check it out. Pretty cool game! ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 6 Tue Mar 08, 1994 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 23:11 EST Dr. Fenrear, Although I am not certain about other retailers, Toys R Us stated their position soon after Sega initiated their ratings scheme. Toys R Us will not buy or sell any game that is rated MA-17 (Which is why you won't find Lethal Enforcers in TRU). I expect this trend to hold when the "across the board" ratings are initiated such that any games not intended for children or teens will not be carried. I think the press release should have included information about Atari's online offer of Tempest 2000. It's things like this that will make Atari's userbase more online conscious (anything to save a buck) and they'll already be prepared to make that jump into the "Software Seas" when the modem adaptor is available. Still Sailing, Sir Fransis because after tooling on the internet, "Information Superhighway" sounds _too_ organized... ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 7 Tue Mar 08, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 23:49 EST Well, STalk The Market has the right spirit. It yelled out tonight to "BUY" ATC. Yes, it does this from time to time. Why? It seems that downtrend line we've been shaking our fist at is at 6 9/16 tonight and ATC closed at 6 5/8 -- that's 10/16. STM can work with 16ths, and it sees a penetration of the line. However, I've got to look at it in terms of 1/8's, so I don't see the breakout. Am I blind, or is STM wishing? On Wednesday, that line is at 6 1/2, so maybe....? Anyway, the 13 day cycle is doing its danged best to help the 40 day cycle demonstrate an upturn in the '120' day cycle. Got it? It's simple. That 13 day cycle has got to be gaining back its amplitude, because it is bucking the downslop of the 40 day cycle -- remember, it last bottomed out about Feb 8. This may be good news all round, because it could mean the return of volatility -- ie amplitude -- in the next 40 day cycle repetition as well. Whatever, this is one more feather on the side of the balance that says the trend -- ie the '120' day cycle -- is slowly turning up. A close at 6 3/4 or above this week would add a whole decagram, although it would still be a 'high risk' signal. A kilogram would be getting above 8 1/8, possibly in the next 40 day cycle....? The tea leaves are indicating this has a half decent chance. Did I hear someone say "drunk"? No, just giddy. STM hasn't said "BUY ATC" for a long time, and it shocked me. But, STM isn't always right. --Sandy PS: There is something else interesting going on just beneath the surface. But more about that tomorrow. It's not exactly new. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 8 Wed Mar 09, 1994 ICDINC [Tom] at 00:37 EST John, You mean that you won't be buying Star Raiders for the Jaguar? - TOM - ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 9 Wed Mar 09, 1994 F.CUCCI [goodwrench] at 00:43 EST Has anyone ever heard of TH*Q, a software developer that _rumor_ has it that they might want to develop for Jaguar, and also what ever happened with SFAN and Atari ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 10 Wed Mar 09, 1994 J.BRENNER1 [See Flat] at 01:01 EST Towns, wow.....you're just like one of us now. ;-) ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 11 Wed Mar 09, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 02:46 EST Travis - - There I go and confess my sin, and you tell me it's OK. I'll have to come to you more often. It's good for my psyche :-). Let's see now. You are getting confused over my turnip leaves? That's a new one. While the day, hardly passes where I don't see the message of the tea leaves -- I like to drink tea -- I'm afraid I don't often get a look at turnip leaves. Would they make a palatable beverage? "Huh?" you say, "Has this guy stepped over the brink at last?" Not yet. It's just that the only definition for "neep" (as in your "financial neepery") that I can find in my dictionary is "a turnip". Now, if you want me to be even clearer than I already am (!) in my T/A conclusions, you will have to define your own terminology more clearly. The reason I devoted most of my current GEnieLamp column to an introduction to cycle analysis, was so that my T/A could be more easily understood. :-). Seriously, I can't claim to be passing along anything as serious as "news", even "-news-". The last thing I would do, anyway, is adopt a 'recipe-like' approach, which is what you are suggesting. I can only describe what I think I see. You will have to characterize it. (NO, not that way, please!) --Sandy PS: The Dow Jones news wire today listed ATC among "Hot Stocks to Watch" because of yesterday's announcement of 48 added developers. So, at least they are impressed. PS II: It seems that SEGA Channal -- that darling of SEGA, Tele- Communications, Inc., and Time Warner -- has made another step forward with their dedicated Sega Genesis based interactive TV channel. They signed on another affiliate: Adelphia. Now why didn't TW push Atari in that direction with the Jaguar? ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 12 Wed Mar 09, 1994 AEO.MAG [!] FSU #1 [!] at 05:38 EST //// Tom, Herasy! Star Raiders should be the pack-in, if for name alone! :) //// Mr.(?) Goodwrench, The only thing I know about TH*Q, is they publish/do a lot of movie/tv license titles. "Wayne's World" comes to mind. Don't ask me why. :) I haven't heard anything more with SFAN since the initial announcements about three years ago. Too bad. //// Sandy, | There I go and confess my sin, and you tell me it's OK. I'll have to | come to you more often. It's good for my psyche :-). The most I'll ask of you is one Our Father, two "Go 'Noles!" and a round of Margaritas! ;) | -- I like to drink tea -- Me too. Twinings' Earl Grey, Decaf - hot. | at turnip leaves. Would they make a palatable beverage? Yes. Although it's not considered a beverage, the juice cooked off of turnip leaves is called "pot liquor" - very good with cornbread. I prefer collard greens to turnips, though. | It's just that the only definition for "neep" (as in your "financial | neepery") that I can find in my dictionary is "a turnip". Oops. "Neepery" is techno-slang. It refers to the use of excessive jargon. (The jargon itself is "neep" or sometimes referred to as "neep-neep". And yes, this means my first use of the word "neepery" was an example of neepery.) Darlah's BB here is filled with computer neepery - Atari neepery. This topic is filled with financial neepery. Neepery is not bad, only confusing to those not in on it. | The last thing I would do, anyway, is adopt a 'recipe-like' approach, | which is what you are suggesting. No, no, no. Please don't change the way you write. I was only suggesting that after someone here posts several paragraphs of "uptrending lines" and "equity market" and "floating bonds" - or whatever - you throw in a capsule "How does this affect ATC stock" summary. Even if it is only 6 words: "And Travis, it's good for Atari." :) --Travis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 13 Wed Mar 09, 1994 STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 05:42 EST TOWNS - Well, Iguana Software (who did NBA Jam for Acclaim) is a Jaguar developer and if Atari can't get Acclaim to sign on as a developer, they'll go directly to Williams/Midway (did you see "WMS Industries" on the new list?). K.DRAKE - Maybe after Toys 'R' Us realizes all the sales they're losing (like Nintendo's realizing how the SNES is waning in popularity!), they'll change their policy. On CNBC Monday, one of the Toys 'R' Us execs was on and he just said that TRU's policy, after the rating system goes into effect, will be that they WON'T carry titles that AREN'T rated (by the way, Toys 'R' Us in my neck of the woods DOES carry LETHAL ENFORCERS -- one even still had copies of NIGHT TRAP last weekend!!!). Besides, if people think that a few of the larger retailers refusing to carry some titles will eliminate the market for them, they're living in their own little self-righteous fantasy world! F.CUCCI - I remember posting a year or more ago that SFAN was pretty much dead in the water and I got jumped on for saying that. Well, it STILL ain't here and now I'm laughing at all the guys who gave me a hard time! I'm sure SOMEONE will come around insisting that it's still around and that they're just looking for financing -- which they've been doing for about 2 years or more! ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 14 Wed Mar 09, 1994 C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] at 08:33 EST Who or what is SFAN? Carson ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 15 Wed Mar 09, 1994 J.HICKEY6 at 10:01 EST Good News/Bad News(micro-fundamentals) Good news - I walked into Blockbuster in San Carlos, CA and was immediately struck by a Jaguar display. Bad news - it was only cardboard. MGN - they had three titles on display MBN - they only had a few in stock YMBN - the clerks I talked to had not sold any Jaguars. Jack Tip: Buy on BN - sell on GN ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 16 Wed Mar 09, 1994PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin] at 11:42 EST Jack, Generally (from correlating some of my Fourier charts and GN/BN info), you'd wanna sell in anticipation of the GN, not right when it is 'official'. By the time Joe Schmoe hears about it (via TV, papers, etc) it is usually to late, or close to being too late. --Kevin ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 17 Wed Mar 09, 1994 ICDINC [Tom] at 14:58 EST Well, I am back in Sandy. I didn't feel right standing on the sidelines during the first Bull move in a long time. I have a PC with lots of possibilities using SuperCharts. Let me know if there is something special you would like run on ATC. - TOM - ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 18 Wed Mar 09, 1994 TOWNS [John] at 16:00 EST I have _always_ been one of you. I was an Atarian long before I worked for the company. I really like the Jaguar alot and want to see it become a huge success. If I didn't care, I wouldn't say anything. I know Atari can do it. They just have to focus their limited resources very carefully to make sure that they cover the right bases. I wish them luck! -- John PS. The stock is up 3/4 right now to 7 3/8. Looking good. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 19 Wed Mar 09, 1994 BOB-BRODIE [Atari Corp] at 18:14 EST Towns, We're working on it. :) Sandy, Oh... I still like to drink tea, too. Watched the original Star Trek: The Next Generation episode last night. Gave me a hankering for some Earl Grey. Goodwrench- TH*Q also has a lot of people that used to be with our Chicago office. Re SFAN...don't get me started! Suffice it to say that they have yet to air a single program. Travis, Real men don't drink their Earl Grey decaff'ed. All, I still strongly encourage you to expend some time researching the who's and why's of the recent press release. I think, perhaps wrongly, that you should have some kind of an understanding about our company actions if you hold a position in our company. regards, Bob Brodie ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 20 Wed Mar 09, 1994 M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 18:56 EST Thanks Travis (and Sandy!) Your messages 161 (Sandy) & 162 (Trav.) prove just how entertaining this area can be! ;-) Matt ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 21 Wed Mar 09, 1994 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 19:24 EST Dr. Hufoggy, WMS Industries is Williams? I was wondering if it was Williams brothers but that didn't sound right. That is good news indeed. I have a video tape that was distributed by TRU-TV from the videogames buyer to _every_ store. In that videotape (which I will admit may be old news since it was in Sept. of last year) the buyer stated that Toys 'R' Us will not carry Sega games that are rated MA-17. I took that to mean that any future games that were rated as "adult" would not be carried by TRU. A lot of TRU's have Night Trap in stock but they're not supposed to be displayed (they were pulled from the shelves awhile back). As far as Lethal Enforcers (GEN and CD), I have no idea why they've got them in stock. <:-} Re: lost sales... TRU is more concerned about their image vs. lost sales. In my area, BB guns are big business but TRU doesn't carry them _or_ slingshots. Right now, MA-17 games make up a _small_ portion of total videogame sales so excluding them is helping their image more than it's hurting their bottom line. Will TRU ever go nationwide with carrying MA-17 games? As long as there's a vocal group who is against it, no. Still Sailing, Sir Fransis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 22 Wed Mar 09, 1994 AEO.MAG [!] FSU #1 [!] at 19:32 EST //// Bob, Strangely, the decaffed Earl Grey -tastes- better than the regular. Maybe it's the toxic chemicals they use in the decaf process that does it. OH NO! WE'RE GONNA GET SUED! //// Matt, Just wait till you see us in re-runs. :) --Travis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 23 Wed Mar 09, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 19:45 EST Jack - - Your 'GN/BN(micro-fundamentals)' is great stuff. Keep it up; it will make many here happy. Re the March expiration date, my copies of the NY Times occasionally list March options with a 7 1/2 strike price. I don't think there are any Aprils, but I have some May 7 1/2 Calls. If things work out, they may yet yield a gain. I anticipate selling them about mid-May, maybe even let them expire which may save a commission fee. Looks like the 'trend' has indeed changed. I'll be back on this after updating later tonight. That's 'GOOD NEWS FOR ATARI' Travis! The trend change, that is, not my being back later. Off hand, however, I look for a relatively weak week next week, with the price falling back. If that happens, that will also be 'GOOD NEWS FOR ATARI' Travis. BTW, that "pot liquor" stuff sounds interesting, sort of illegal, which lends a sense of risk. ;-) --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 24 Wed Mar 09, 1994 I.POSSEHL1 at 23:14 EST Is this the breakout we've been waiting for? Or shall we look for another? Will we see an immediate jump? Or will we have to wait 2-6 weeks. (o weaks?) Sheesh... how does a guy use a perenthesis when he doesn't what to smile, wink or show some other emotion? Anyhow... My guess is that we wait a few weeks then comes a nice sharp rise. Followed in 2-3 more weeks by another nice rise. BTW: Tea. Earl Grey. Hot! for me too. English Breakfast is pretty good as well. -> Iver ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 25 Wed Mar 09, 1994 J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 23:21 EST In Message 53 on Mon Feb 28, 1994 (Several posts; read all the way!?) SLP [Scott] said: -| You just hop on the train and ride for a while, hoping that you get off -| a stop or two before everyone else. Charts are great for showing where -| you were, but that is all they can do. If you charted the speed and/or the acceleration of the train, you could ANTICIPATE the arrival of a STOP when the acceleration passed through zero and became negative at the same time the speed began to decrease. If you were interested in "jumping train" before everyone else, this chart would let you know when the engineer was slowing down or preparing to stop.... Not a bad analogy... ================ In Message 37 on Sun Feb 27, 1994 M.LYDA [mike] said: -| T/A is B.S. It works because there are millions of other people -| following the same charts like lemmings. Probably quite true! But why scoff it... why use it and be on the winning side when everyone else drives the price one way or another? (On the other hand, don't -- we techies need you guys to buy/sell our stocks to...) I move that all this diatribe about tech analysis is good or bad be tabled, or taken to the Investment RT where it wastes hours of download time day after day, and neither side EVER gets convinced they're wrong. THIS TOPIC IS SUPPOSED TO BE TALKING ABOUT ATARI STOCK, by stockHOLDERS. ===================== In Message 33 on Sat Feb 26, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] said: -| IMHO, trading on the basis of a Dorfman Report is foolish. Not if one waits for it to peak and then shorts the Dorfman reccomendation! =============== In Message 15 on Fri Feb 25, 1994 STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] said: -| By the way, 3DO stock DROPPED 2 today! Actually, 3DO's stock hasn't -| gained any from the announcement of the REAL 3DO MultiPlayer's $200 -| price reduction. ------------ That's because _I_ bought some of it! If I buy, it goes down; if I sell, it goes into a runaway breakout! (5 in the last five days...) Jim W2JC in Northern NJ --... ...-- -.. . .-- ..--- .--- -.-. -.- ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 26 Thu Mar 10, 1994 J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 00:57 EST In Message 130 on Mon Mar 07, 1994 DARLAH [RT~SYSOP] said: -| The extensive blood and gore are getting negative press up here in -| regards to video games. Kids appear to like it, parents do not, as a -| whole. ------------ Perhaps not exactly _independent_ events! ============ In Message 108 on Sat Mar 05, 1994 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] said: -| How high? 8 is a possibility in the short term though if it doesn't -| reach 8 by Wed., I see it getting soft again. Not bad, Sir! It's Wed evening as I type this, and we've broken out to 7 1/2 with chart formations that look like their almost straight up! Enough so I jumped in at 10 a.m. Wed. before leaving for work and by the time I got set up on my desk it was already at 7 1/2... maybe your only a day off? Jim W2JC in Northern NJ --... ...-- -.. . .-- ..--- .--- -.-. -.- ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 27 Thu Mar 10, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 01:02 EST Bob B_ - - >> I think, perhaps wrongly, that you should have some kind of an understanding about our company actions if you hold a position in our company.<< You are not wrong. Most people must have some fundamental knowledge of their investments -- even I get to know some of that stuff, by osmosis. It not only lends a feeling of comfort, of having made a decision based on "analysis", but it substitutes for a lack of understanding of the T/A aspects. It has taken me many years to feel comfortable with T/A, so I can substitute T/A for actually "knowing" anything ;-). One caution however,anyone among the great public who thinks they might actually "understand" what Atari is up to, had better think again. IMVHO that is. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 28 Thu Mar 10, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 01:03 EST Well, here's tonights "neepery" -- and that's _not_ turnips! ATC rose to 7 1/2 before settling back to close at 7 1/4. It did this on relatively high volume -- made the 5 most active AMEX list once again. A very exciting day. Some observations follow: 1) The target projection after the penetration of the much discussed downtrend line, based on classical T/A patterns, was 7 1/2 - 7 5/8. This has now been satisfied -- in one day! 2) The only remaining unpenetrated overhead resistance/trendline that I have is a '2/3 Speed Line', a concept I discussed back last Sept/Oct. Funny thing, the present one passed through 7 1/2 today. Coincidence? 3) About 2 weeks ago, I mentioned the "hint" of a 20 day cycle, although I could not verify it. Well, it can now be seen more clearly. It bottomed out and turned up Feb 1-2. Thus, the 13 day cycle, now in its 3rd or 4th day (ie up), may be riding on a 20 day cycle, now nearing its peak. That may be why the 13 day has shown such strength. Both are riding on the 40 day cycle, which is now in its 30th day (ie a downslope). The combination, however, has clearly demonstrated that the next longer cycle -- 120 days or more, and which constitutes the 'trend' -- is turning up. The 20 day cycle will turn down in the next few days. The 13 day cycle still has a few days on the upside; it should turn down this weekend. Next week, therefore, will have all 3 cycles going down to a multiple bottom about March 20 give or take a few days, with the trend moving up. The net result should be a fall back, probably under 7, maybe as low as 6 1/2. After that, hold onto your seat; the rocket should take off. (That 8 1/8 is still there to mark the final confirmation that the trend is indeed up; this could represent an obstacle, but it looks more and more like it will be a confirmation.) That is my interpretation of the cycle model. 4) Volatility looks like it is returning. This would correspond with increasing amplitudes for the cycles. The fractal model has run out of its low volatility trading range period, as discussed in the past, and which is quite evident on the chart. 5) Last night, I mentioned that something is going on beneath the surface. On the days when I have the opportunity to get several quotes, I have noticed that the price has tended to rise in brief spurts of relatively heavy volume. Then the volume reduces substantially, and the price falls back slowly. I have mentioned this before, especially when the price/volume spurt comes close to the end of the day. This seems to me to be clear evidence of either short covering by some large traders, or quiet accumulation by a few optimistic investors, or both. This subsurface activity is what has kept me on the optimistic side for the past several weeks, in spite of surface evidence that pessimism might be more appropriate. It was the lenghty prelude to what happened today. 6) Finally, we cannot overlook all those remaining short sellers who may be lining up to bail out. This could push the price up much further and much faster than projected above. This would represent a true "squeeze", and could be awesome in its power. Let me once again remind anybody who may have an idea that I know what I'm talking about, that I don't have any better view into the future than anybody else. Buying, selling, or holding is your own decision entirely, and should definitley _not_ be based on my musings. If you have some doubt, stay out. --Sandy PS: Updated charts -- through Friday -- should be posted by Monday in the next GEnieLamp mid-month Special Report on Atari. 'STalk The Market' screamed "BUY ATARI" last night, so these charts must be pretty smart. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 29 Thu Mar 10, 1994 M.BILINSKI at 01:29 EST AEO.MAG Sorry but they don't use toxic chemicals to decaf Earl Grey; they use physical methods to do that (a modified "freeze-dried" extraction they use for coffee). Besides, even if they _did_ use some chemicals in the process, they'd make damn sure there isn't any left in there. When in doubt, ask a chemist... :-) Topic cops Sorry 'bout that, but I was weak for a second there Bob B. You've been talking for a while about "doing research" about the names of those companies that are now officially Jag developpers. Two things to say: 1- Where can we look them up? 2-I think it would've taken you less time to tell us right away instead of repeating the "do your homework" thing. (Just feelin' lazy) Marek ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 30 Thu Mar 10, 1994 J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 03:10 EST In Message 167 on Wed Mar 09, 1994 ICDINC [Tom] said: -| Well, I am back in Sandy. I didn't feel right standing on the -| sidelines during the first Bull move in a long time. Me too, Sandy!! Took one look at the move to 6 5/8 at 10am EST, then saw the VOLUME of 100,000+ first thing in morning and did a very rare (for me) market order to snag em right away... by the time I got to work and set up the laptop, ATC was at 7 1/2 -- AND most of the other tech curves look like a rocket poised to go off. Dont see such combination of positive conditions very often on my chart set; hope it doesnt backfire. ======== In Message 165 on Wed Mar 09, 1994 J.HICKEY6 said: -| Good news - I walked into Blockbuster in San Carlos, CA and was -| immediately struck by a Jaguar display. Sounds like a get-rich lawsuit to me! :) ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 31 Thu Mar 10, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 03:38 EST After looking at the chart again, I think I am seeing the possible start of a fractal repetition, similar to what happened last fall. A long uptrend line and that recent downtrend line I have been talking about have just come nearly to a vertex, putting the same type of "nail biting time" squeeze on the price as we saw back then. Remember those days? The breakout was inevitable, for the same reasons. If it follows through, the pattern should sort of follow what happened on the way up to 12 3/4. This time it should go higher, and take longer. OTOH, I could merely be falling asleep here. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 32 Thu Mar 10, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 03:39 EST Jim - - >> I move that all this diatribe about tech analysis is good or bad be tabled, or taken to the Investment RT where it wastes hours of download time day after day, and neither side EVER gets convinced they're wrong.<< Take it easy. One possible reason why we can discuss such things in a civilized way is that 98% are fundmantalists here, with only a few extolling the virtues of T/A. Over there, they are split more evenly, and in larger numbers, so the arguments get hotter and derive support from numerous quarters. They can't enjoy it as much as we do here. Here, the main subject of analysis is a company for which real fundamental analysis is virtually impossible. That emphasizes the value of T/A, which doesn't rely on financial history, balance sheets, income reports, news, and/or other fundamental information to demonstrate its utility. And I think most people here will admit that it has shown a degree of success and lots of laughs. Frankly, I have a sense that a few fundamentalists here have begun to see some benefit to T/A. The lead debater on the fundamentalist side even admitted that he had to learn this T/A stuff, and went off to buy a fancy Gateway PC, T/A software, and all the T/A books he can find, all motivated by his sudden need to learn T/A. Of course, he pocketed over $100,000 from ATC last year, so he can well afford it. His 'moment of truth' came when his expectation, based on "fundamentals", that ATC would get up to 15 - 16 in the short term failed. He held on too long, well beyond the sell signal from T/A, and gave back too much to accept with tranquility. He had 12,000 shares, and had ultimate goals of 30 about now and 60 later this year. So, let the debate continue, in the style we have been following. And let the "pro's" on page 290 debate it over there according to their style. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 33 Thu Mar 10, 1994 STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 05:34 EST K.DRAKE - I believe "WMS" stands for "Williams/Midway/Sente" (Williams/Midway bought Bally/Sente, but then sold off the Bally name with the Bally health clubs). ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 34 Thu Mar 10, 1994 A.FASOLDT [Al Fasoldt] at 08:36 EST Bob B., Steam is used to help in the extraction of caffeine, also. No chemicals are used any longer, for tea of coffee. Al ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 35 Thu Mar 10, 1994 B.STOREY [Billy B.] at 08:49 EST Here comes that 3-month cycle "surge"! The forcast from here is a steady decline starting at the end of this "bubble", somewhat mirroring the rise to 11/93. 3:54:44 am - Thursday, March 10, 1994 Billy B. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 36 Thu Mar 10, 1994 J.HICKEY6 at 09:47 EST Sandy, with >>all three cycles going down ...it sounds like a Biorhythym chart. :-)(that's supposed to be a grin). How far back do you go to establish(or validate) these cycles? Jack ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 37 Thu Mar 10, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 13:00 EST Jack - - You ask: "How far back do you go to establish(or validate) these cycles?" I prefer to see 3 full cycle recurrences before I trade on it. However, sometimes that shrinks to 2, either because I let myself get excited, or because the cycle is so long that it is impractical to see it 3 times back. Thus, the 13 and 40 day cycles are clearly visible for 3 or more repetitions. I can now see three 20 day cycles, although this was not too clear a few weeks back. The 120+ day cycle is quite evident, but it only shows 2 repetitions -- seems to have bottomed out sometime over the past few weeks -- because ATC only started trading in any practical sense last May/June, so that a 3rd sighting is not possible. It was my reluctance to accept the 120+ cycle as verified which delayed my diving into cycle analysis techniques until recently. I mentioned the technique a ew months ago, but could not pin down a cycle longer than 40 days for ATC. Now I am willing to accept the 120+ day as being there, although somewhat hazy during the present period. I think Billy B. has mentioned his sighting of a cycle of about 3 months, based on 2 peaks of July 16 (5 1/2) and November 4 (12 3/4). However, 2 points only define one completed cycle. So, while his idea may turn out valid, it is stretching things a bit thin imho. There is no visible peak one period earlier (mid April), and we have already passed well beyond 3 months since Nov. 4, without an equivalent peak. But these things are not all that definite, so he should keep trying. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 38 Thu Mar 10, 1994 AEO.MAG [!] FSU #1 [!] at 16:37 EST Guys, I was kidding about the toxic chemicals stuff. It was a set-up for the Letterman bit. --Travis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 39 Thu Mar 10, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 17:19 EST Iver - - I will get you the daily data as far back as June, 1992. Beyond that, I can only get monthly data, which is probably of no use to you. Perhaps someone else can get the dailies going back further. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 40 Thu Mar 10, 1994 ICDINC [Tom] at 17:44 EST Sandy, I have the dailies for ATC back to 1989. Is that what you are talking about? - TOM - ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 41 Thu Mar 10, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 18:45 EST TOM, Yes, Iver is doing some research on ATC price movements surrounding certain news events. He can specify the dates he needs. I can only supply them back to June, '92, so maybe you can help him better. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 42 Thu Mar 10, 1994 M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 21:01 EST Jim, Quick! Sell some ATC! I'd love to see a runaway breakout! Matt ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 43 Thu Mar 10, 1994 K.OLSON10 [KenO.] at 22:55 EST Hi! I just read Walter S. Mossberg "Personal Technology" in the Wall Street. I sure wish someone would show him a Jag. He takes the pants off of 3DO but says nothing about the Jag. In fact in all of his regular Thursday reports I never noticed him once mention ATARI. Perhaps someone should clew him in - or don't any ATARI fans read the WS Personal Technology every Thursday? A mention once in a while from Mossberg would give our stock a boost. KenO. :) ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 44 Thu Mar 10, 1994 J.BATTEY1 [J. L. Battey] at 23:36 EST TOWNS, > Well, another smash sports game was just released for the Genesis > and the Super NES: NBA Jam from Acclaim. Notice I didn't include > Jaguar. IGUANA, the creators of NBA Jams, has been advertising off & on in the Dallas paper to hire Jaguar programmers for about a month. They are in Austin, TX., birthplace of the PowerPC chip. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 45 Fri Mar 11, 1994 M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 00:15 EST Sandy! Amazing post! (msg. 178) Neepery... I love it! Oh, I like your new 'tag' line, too. "If you have some doubt... stay out!" ;- ) Gee, this is really starting to become _fun_ again, isn't it?! Might have to increase my position again! Keep it up Sandy, your logic and deductions (ie: Tea Leaves) may be your own... but they are Sage non-the-less, and more than welcome! Matt ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 46 Fri Mar 11, 1994 PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin] at 08:12 EST Ahhh... finally some volatility. :) Makes life more spicy. I sold off some (at about 425% profit) last week to buy some shares in another company that my fourier analysis told me to 'get some'. :) Oh well... I'm not to aggravated that I didn't wait for ATC to hit 7.5. :) (to should be too) I may use the other stock to buy back the ATC soon. :) Gotta run some more on the ATC tho'. Hmm... doesn't CI$ do daily quotes back for over 1 year? I think I got a lot of daily quotes back to 89 or so from there. --Kevin ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 47 Fri Mar 11, 1994 NEVIN-S at 09:29 EST How is SuperCharts, Tom? That's the Windows program, right? Do you like it? How is its speed on the machine you're using? --Nevin ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 48 Fri Mar 11, 1994 ICDINC [Tom] at 09:37 EST Nevin, It is incredible software. I am using it on a 486-DX2-66. It is reasonably fast considering windows is running. The slow part right now is printing in color with my BJC-600. That puts windows to sleep for a while VM seems to kick in. I have heard that there are better print spoolers available that would fix this problem. SuperCharts has much more power than I will ever be able to use and understand. I am still a novice at TA but learning. Currently I am actively playing with 4 different stocks which SC shows in a master page for me. I am still entering dailies by hand but will figure a solution for that soon. I would recommend this for anyone with Windows. - TOM - PS Price was around $200 and they only sell directly from the developer. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 49 Fri Mar 11, 1994 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 11:51 EST Dr. Heavenervrr, Thanks, I was wondering why the Bally name had all of a sudden been connnected with health clubs. I figured maybe videogames had been ruled healthy and I missed it!! As long as the T/A talk stays informative and not flaming, I believe it is useful to my understanding of this stock stuff. By combining T/A, fundamentals, and my own personal analysis, I get a better view of Atari stock. Still Sailing, Sir Fransis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 50 Fri Mar 11, 1994 PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin] at 12:04 EST Sir Fransis, The Bally Health clubs have equipment with lots of electronic gadgetry on it (in addition to free weights). The electronic stuff seems to be mfr by Bally Electronics. Some of those machines look like videogames. :) --Kevin ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 51 Fri Mar 11, 1994 J.NESS [Jim] at 20:46 EST John Townsend - Re: sports games... According to Juli Wade, the "big 4" - baseball, football, basketball and hockey - are all in progress. But, she didn't give specific names. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 52 Fri Mar 11, 1994 J.BATTEY1 [J. L. Battey] at 21:27 EST The whole T/A or F/A debate merely serves to entertain most of us here, I think. In regards to the broad market, it is rather like debating over whether to use a 1/2 inch wrench or a 13mm spanner; depends on the nuts you are trying to turn. John L. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 53 Fri Mar 11, 1994 SAM-RAPP [< >] at 23:47 EST There seems to be a lot of interesting things going on in the background these days. Just beneath the surface. We need Gene's artful research to put the pieces of the puzzle together for us. Where has he gone anyway? ==========> Sam_030 ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 54 Sat Mar 12, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 01:42 EST John L. - - >> ...depends on the nuts you are trying to turn. << Nah, John. I'll admit to being the nut around here. Those guys who think they can figure out ATC's fundamentals must be brilliant -- they have to be for _that_ exercise. ;-) - = - Sam_030 - - Gene went off to learn T/A. I suspect he'll get back here some day and show us all up once again. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 56 Sun Mar 13, 1994 J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 15:54 EST In Message 187 on Thu Mar 10, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] said: -| Thus, the 13 and 40 day cycles are clearly visible for 3 or more -| repetitions. I can now see three 20 day cycles, although this was not -| too clear a few weeks back. The 120+ day cycle is quite evident, but -| it only shows 2 repetitions -- How do you actually detect these cycles? Is it just by eyeball, or do you have some sort of analysis that breaks the complex shape into sub-cycles? >From my engineering background, I've wondered if one could do a Fourier analysis on the price waveshape and resolve it into sub-harmonics... but I never really got past understanding WHAT Fourier transforms were, so I dont feel competent to try it myself! Your discussion, however, sounds very much like you are viewing the multiple Fourier components of a complex waveform. Jim W2JC in Northern NJ --... ...-- -.. . .-- ..--- .--- -.-. -.- ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 57 Sun Mar 13, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 20:21 EST Jim - - >> You ask: "How do you actually detect these cycles? Is it just by eyeball, or do you have some sort of analysis that breaks the complex shape into sub- cycles? ... Your discussion, however, sounds very much like you are viewing the multiple Fourier components of a complex waveform." << Glad you asked. Yes, it is possible, within limits, to break the complex shape into sub-cycles and view them. The new mid-month GEnieLamp shows precisely this in a picture, and describes just how that picture was obtained. ( It should be posted by Monday/Tuesday.) For this report, I concentrate on the '120+' day cycle -- 2 completed "sine-wave like" repetitions plus the bottoming out process which seems to be going on now. It is overlaid on the chart of prices, and is quite clear. Next time, I expect to show the '40' day cycle. (I appreciate that you do not have a PC viewer for the Atari PCx format; as soon as I get my GEM View program, I will convert past and future pictures into GIF or BMP or any other format you and the other interested PC users in the other RTs require.) This is all based on the concept of Fourier series. Unfortunately, a straight forward Fourier transform process does not yield very good results, because the complexity is more than it is designed to handle -- for technical mathematical reasons. However, there are other filter methods one can use, all based on the Fourier concept, which do work fairly well. The princpal technique I am using now is based on Moving Average combinations. To do this, one _must_ use MAs in a mathematically correct way -- which is something you and I have discussed in a different context. This MA filter technique is demonstrated in the new LAMP report, but one should -- _must_ -- read the introduction in the March 1st issue in order to understand this new report. (In the future, I will try to pull the entire subject together into one piece. For now, I am developing it step-by-step over several articles.) --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 58 Mon Mar 14, 1994 C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] at 09:27 EST Sandy, With all the work you are putting into those articles, it sounds like you have a T/A book in the making. Thanks & keep up the good work. Carson ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 59 Mon Mar 14, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 21:45 EST Carson - - >> sounds like you have a T/A book in the making. << Nah, I'm not that accomplished with this stuff. I do this because I really enjoy it, and the feedback has been helpful. I'm learning a well as "teaching", which was why I started it in the first place. BUT ... since I started doing this last June, it has taken several unexpected turns. Maybe another turn lies ahead? :-) Or maybe my "15 minutes" is just about over. :-( Thanks for your comment. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 60 Tue Mar 15, 1994 C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] at 08:27 EST Has anyone heard any news about Atari's lawsuit against Sega? It seems so long ago when that came out. It was in the news & our disscussions for a few days then "poof", gone. Carson ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 61 Tue Mar 15, 1994 J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 23:06 EST In Message 60 on Tue Mar 15, 1994 C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] said: -| Has anyone heard any news about Atari's lawsuit against Sega? It seems -| so long ago when that came out. It was in the news & our disscussions -| for a few days then "poof", gone. Did you see the news today, that Sega is coming out with a 32 bit game machine much earlier than originally expected? ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 62 Tue Mar 15, 1994 J.BATTEY1 [J. L. Battey] at 23:42 EST Jim W2JC, >Did you see the news today, that Sega is coming out with a 32 bit >game machine much earlier than originally expected? The story I heard broadcast on CBS Radio was that this fall Sega would be coming out with an adapter for the Genesis that would allow it to play 32 bit games. They also said that details were sketchy. John L. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 63 Wed Mar 16, 1994 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 00:34 EST You remember their DSP chip in the Virtua Racing cart? Well, they figured that if they were going to do an adaptor with a chip in it, they might as well toss a couple of those Hitachi 32 jobbies in there with it. They are calling it a 32x2 system. It should bring 3DO and Jaguar gaming inline with an even lower price, $149.99, and it will work with Genesis _and_ SegaCD. Too bad they won't be at CES, I'd sure like to get a look at it! Sounds impressive? mildly. Sounds workable? Extremely. If all Nintendo can do is come out with a cartridge that allows you to play Gameboy carts on your SNES, they're in trouble (Although I see this as their way of preparing software for their new 256color portable). The above is the reason why, IMHO, PCEngine is still big in Japan. It's basically the same system year after year with upgrades. The competition has gone through 2 or 3 different incompatible incarnations while a few upgrades to a used PCEngine puts you right up in the front. Still Sailing, Sir Fransis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 64 Wed Mar 16, 1994 STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 04:51 EST J.COOPER6 - "much earlier than expected"??? All the reports I've heard/read regarding Tuesday's announcement say not until this Fall. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 65 Thu Mar 17, 1994 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 01:23 EST Does anyone else here observe the buoyancy of Atari stock? I don't do charts so from the point of view of a "predictor," it looks funny. In the same way it was struggling to get higher, now it regularly bounces around in 1/8 increments. It is for this reason that I make the following statement... I HEREBY DECLARE THAT UNLESS ATARI IS IMPLICATED IN THE NANCY KERRIGAN SCRAP, ATARI SHALL HOLD LINE ABOVE 6.5! ATC's been toying with 7 for awhile now after that press release. If they properly space out their PR's, they could gain a point every two weeks!! :) Still Sailing, Sir Fransis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 66 Thu Mar 17, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 03:27 EST Well, we are getting close to test time for the current set of cycles. The 40, 20, and 13 day cycles are due to bottom out this weekend -- a 'nest of lows'. They have kept prices under downwards pressure as expected, after the 13 and 20 topped last Wednesday. Allowing for "end effects", prices could dip and then start up anytime now. The condition of the longer 'trend' cycle is the puzzle, as is made clear in the mid-month G_Lamp which should be in the library by now (still suffering "teething" pains in going through the publication process, unfortunately). The downtrend line which stopped the rise at 7 1/2 last Wednesday, is at 7 1/8 now. It will drop through 7 next Monday. This is the final trendline type of overhead resistance that I see. If prices get above that line, they should be able to rise quite nicely. If they get above 8 1/4, this would confirm that the longer trend has turned up. BTW, that otherwise "invisible" downtrend line is also explained in detail in the mid-month report. It is not just something I made up last week, but something you can calculate before its presence becomes known by its effect on prices, such as demonstrated last Wednesday. - = = - If anyone from Atari reads this, you may find it interesting to look in on the 3DO topic (C14, T38) in the Investors RT (m290;1) for a great description by one of the Sysops there of the latest 3DO promotional effort at a big mall in Florida -- I think it was at Babbages in Ft. Lauderdale. Very impressive! It was posted within the past few days and will be easy to find, as that topic has been pretty dead until this week. May give our Valeski and co. some ideas. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 67 Thu Mar 17, 1994 J.HICKEY6 at 10:08 EST Sandy, what does T/A say about Atari's intra-day fluctuations(price and volume)? From my observations, and messages here, there is significant volitility. Jack ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 68 Thu Mar 17, 1994 PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin] at 16:08 EST Jack, I wouldn't "say" much unless you used very detailed data (ie. every 5 minutes or so). --Kevin ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 69 Thu Mar 17, 1994 J.P.C. at 20:53 EST Sandy: Nice article in the latest issue of CURRENT NOTES. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 70 Thu Mar 17, 1994 B.POSTON [Barney] at 23:22 EST On Tuesday March 15 The Dallas Morning News reported a Dorfman rumor that Seagram Co. Ltd. was considering a proxy fight to gain control of Time Warner Inc. Has anyone heard any more on this subject? Where is the fit between TW and Seagrams? What are the potential implications for Atari? Visited the local Incredible Universe last night. They had plenty of Jaguars on hand and lots of kids hanging around but the kids were only playing Segas and SNES. None were even looking at the Jags. They had the Jag set up where you had to stand to play it but you could sit on the floor to play the others. Hope this is only a temporary situation pending the national rollout and start- up of local advertising. Barney ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 71 Fri Mar 18, 1994 L.CALAMAIO1 at 01:45 EST Dear all: I have been listening (reading) to all the discussion for some time now. I am a stockholder, albeit a small one. I saw an article today in the Chicago Tribune today that I thought you all might be interested in. In brief, the article ( on page 3 of TEMPO, the entertainment-type section), there was a 1/4 page article about the Jaguar and Atari. Some choice comments from the article: "somehow the company has survived...and even produced critical, if not popular successes, such as the Atari ST computer and the LYNX video game system..." "Now the copany has launched the Jaguar, its most ambitious video game machine in more than ten years..." "...mind-boggling 16.7 million color combinations...screen resolution is even better than the 3DO...the best part yet:all these fatures come at a list price of only $249.00... And my personal favorite: "Dollar for dollar, it's the best buy in the video game market." Other commments included how the few cartridges available for the machine are "already technically dazzling, and they should get even better..." Although there were some negative comments (the lack of a CD, the lack of educational titles, etc..), the review was very positive. Good to see the next top ten markets are getting on board, and with good press as well. ---Lee /s ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 72 Fri Mar 18, 1994 J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 02:06 EST In Message 65 on Thu Mar 17, 1994 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] said: -| ATC's been toying with 7 for awhile now after that press release. If -| they properly space out their PR's, they could gain a point every two -| weeks!! :) Still Sailing, Dont worry, ATC will take off now -- I didnt like the indicators on my charts Wednesday at 15:55 and sold off my 400 6 5/8s at 6 7/8... so now you can all thank me for the money you make in the next few days! ================= In Message 62 on Tue Mar 15, 1994 J.BATTEY1 [J. L. Battey] said: -| They also said that details were sketchy. " Sega Enterprises Ltd. plans to break into next-generation video games sooner than expected, with hardware that offers a price break over contenders such as 3DO Co. " " .. it will ship a $149 accessory that plugs into the cartridge slot on its Genesis video game machine, roughly doubling that 16-bit system's performance with 32-bit processing power and improved graphics." ".. introduce the system next fall and predicted sales of 2.5 million units world-wide in its first 12 months on the market. " "The system will require software that has been designed to take advantage of the new circuitry, but will still play existing game cartridges; owners of the company's Sega CD system can also play their disks with the accessory. " "Some analysts agreed that the Sega strategy could cast a cloud over 3DO's attempt to build support for its new hardware platform." "There still is an opportunity for 3DO to establish an installed base if they can come up with a killer application." No mention whatsoever of Atari! ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 73 Fri Mar 18, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 03:35 EST Barney - - I don't know much about Seagrams/Time-Warner, but then I don't know much about most of my other investments either, so I will tell you what I know. Seagrams is basically a family operation, the Bronfman family. (BTW, somehow my parents once met the Bronfmans and were their guests at the Kentucky Derby.) It is a Canadian based distiller. These companies which cater to our vices manage to gather in the cash faster than anyone can figure out what to do with it. So I think they gave a large bundle to one of the younger kids to keep him out of everybody's hair, and he has been investing in a major way in other companies, some quite major ones. I think one of the others may be DuPont. Seagrams claims that these investments are "passive" only, and that has apparently been the case up till now. They started buying TWX stock on the open market many months back, and have repeatedly said they planned to accumulate up to 15% purely as a passive investment. They are now very close to the 15%, and the people at Time-Warner have been getting jumpy; apparently they are afraid that Seagrams is not being honest and intends to take over. Seagrams has so far denied any such intent, but TWX execs have put a poison pill on the table, and have taken other actions to save their hides. Now come the Wall Street crowd, and they can make anything into a big deal if they smell blood and money. In just the past few days, with the nervous twitching at TWX so obvious, the arbitragers and other story mongers have put Time Warner/Seagrams in play and made lots of headlines, Dorfman being just one messenger. How much is real, and how much is hot air, is not yet clear. There are even stories that Seagrams already has a new CEO picked out to replace Levine, the TWX CEO. Anyway, TWX has been in a downtrend for a couple of months now -- I got out when I saw that downtrend starting. Even with Seagrams buying millions of shares weekly, TWX has been dropping. With the new stories, the downtrend was reversed just days ago. When I saw this on my chart, I jumped back aboard at 39 earlier this week, and watched, dumbfounded, as it went over 43 today, Thursday. So there. You now know what I know. As for how it will effect Atari, I've been trying to figure out for a year now just how Time-Warner relates to Atari. I've posted some messages here and even raised the question once with Bob Brodie in an RTC. I just don't know -- not very surprising. So what effect a Seagrams take over will have, I can't even guess. --Sandy J.P.C. - - Thanks. I haven't received my copy of CN yet, but I was told something would be in there about me. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 74 Fri Mar 18, 1994 C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] at 08:52 EST Jim, "Dont worry, ATC will take off now -- I didnt like the indicators on my charts Wednesday at 15:55 and sold off my 400 6 5/8s at 6 7/8... so now you can all thank me for the money you make in the next few days!" Thanks!! What other stocks have dumped recently. :) Barney, Concerning your visit to the Incredible Universe, what game was in the Jaguar when you were there? Maybe you should have started playing the Jaguar & got the kids there interested in it. Of course you could be like me. I wouldn't be the best choice to show off a video game. I live in level one of whatever I play. :) Carson ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 75 Fri Mar 18, 1994 TOWNS [John] at 12:33 EST I think Atari will probably come out with a CD for the Jaguar at some point. I know that they had always intended to do that anyway. Does Seagrams really have enough money to buy Time-Warner? I thought TW was worth quite a bit. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 76 Fri Mar 18, 1994 ARCHIVIST [Charlie] at 14:39 EST John, the Bronfmans are one of the three richest familys in Canada, just behind the Richmans, and in addition to Seagrams they own 3/4 of downtown Winnipeg and half of downtown Calgary. They've got money enough to do any darn thing they want, in short. Charlie/sysop ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 77 Fri Mar 18, 1994 B.POSTON [Barney] at 21:43 EST Carson, The Jag was running Cresent Galaxy and I did play for as long as my child bride would wait. I even let out a few, "Wow look at these graphics" but no one even looked up from their NBA games. Sandy, Thanks for the in-depth look at the Seagrams vs. TWX thingy. Good luck with your TWX holdings. Barney ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 78 Fri Mar 18, 1994 M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 23:19 EST Charlie/sysop, Your descriptions of the Bronfmans financial state reminds me of what a friends lawyer told her Grandmother after my friends Grandfather had died. The 'old man' had been of the old school, and _never_ made his wife privy to the state of their finances. At the meeting, when Grandmother expressed concern, the lawyer said... " whatever you want to do, wherever you want to go, whatever you want to buy... it's OK." Well, I wouldn't particularly want it to be for the same reason, but I would sure love it if that advice pertained to me! Matt ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 79 Sat Mar 19, 1994 REALM [Joey] at 00:36 EST Sandy, I saw Kentucky Derby, Seagrams and Dupont all in one post... had to check and make sure I remembered to come home from work.:-) I'll see if my uncle has heard anything about Seagrams. I doubt it though, they don't generally ask us for financial advice.:-) ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 80 Sat Mar 19, 1994 B.STOREY [Billy B.] at 05:46 EST Sandy: Well you see, Seagrams understands about marketing....... 5:26:12 am - Friday, March 18, 1994 Billy B. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 81 Sat Mar 19, 1994 PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin] at 11:33 EST Matt, As a fellow Atari stockholder to another... "Whatever you want to buy, whatever you want to do... It is OK." --Kevin ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 82 Sat Mar 19, 1994 M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 21:21 EST Kevin - Thanks! What a pal! Matt ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 83 Sat Mar 19, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 21:40 EST At last! The mid-month 'Special Report' is now in the library, file # 32279. It shows that 120+ day cycle quite clearly, and should make clearer just what this cycle analysis stuff is about. It also explains why I was able to say that the breakout of March 9 met resistance, a pre-existing downtrend line, at 7 1/2 and was stopped right there. You, too, can construct this trendline _before_ 2 price points are present. "What?", you say. Draw a line with only one defining point? Can't be done. But, in this case it can. You start off from one extreme -- a top or a bottom. That leaves only the option of choosing among an infinite number of possible lines. Since you are interested only in time _after_ the initial point, that cuts the available options in half. And since, as in this case, you are dealing with a downtrend, that cuts the number in half again. So, you are left with choosing only among the remaining 1/4 of the infinity of lines, those between 90 and 180 degrees from the top point. Easy enough. It's all there in file #32279. Sorry about the delay. It has to do with coordinating among 3 or 4 people who are involved in getting it into the library. Since this is still something new on their schedules, it had to go through a shakedown trial of sorts. Should be more prompt in the future. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 84 Tue Mar 22, 1994 J.BATTEY1 [J. L. Battey] at 00:50 EST *** RASH JUDGEMENT*** Buy? Yes, I think so. If you have to ask why, then don't buy. John L. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 85 Tue Mar 22, 1994 K.OLSON10 [KenO.] at 21:08 EST Hi! As a stock holder I have been following the advent of the Jag Went to Electronic Boutique tonight and asked for a Jag. We got into a discussion about getting one and it turns out that they get them in from time to time but always they go out as soon as they get them in. It seems that the Canadians find out and come across and snap them up. I live in Detroit and Windsor Canada is right across the border. The consensus at the store (Eastland Center Mall) is that when they start getting more in it is going to be a real hit. Almost every day they get requests and frequently gamers come in and the conversations always turns to the Jag. The two clerks are game fans themselves and think the Jag is great so they are pushing it. KenO. :) ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 86 Wed Mar 23, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 23:05 EST It's easy to feel desperation at this point. After all, ATC has not yet taken off to the wild blue. On the contrary, it has malingered around under that '2/3 Speed Line' and finally had its drop to 6 1/2 -- actually 6 3/8 on Tuesday. But there is still some reason for optimism yet. It would have been quite unusual to have a triple 'nest of lows' -- ie the 13, 20, and 40 day cycles bottoming out in the same time frame -- without some visible fall in the price. I was looking for such a fall -- mentioned it last week -- but perhaps a day or two earlier would have been nicer. If these cycles are to provide some upward push, they just have to show it real soon now. Question: What are their amplitudes? Answer: not much right now, but that could change. Puzzle: What's with the longer, 120+ day cycle? Well, you saw the chart in the mid-month GEnieLamp -- at least I hope you did. Has anyone been watching that ATC chart? I hope so. Prices are now being squeezed between that descending 'Speed Line', which carries overhead resistance in its back pocket, and a gradually rising support line. My memory says that the gap between these lines is now about 1/4 point: 6 1/2 - 6 3/4. Somethings gotta give, and soon. Of course, that "something" could be the support line. Then we will see a real decline. But I think the odds favor an upwards breakout, not enough to bet the ranch on, but enough to keep one's spirits up for another day. Did anyone see the new list of short positions? ATC's shorts have dropped once again. Keep smilin -- for another day or two anyway. --Sandy PS: I've mentioned watching Syquest (SYQT) as it completes a very long basing pattern. Well, it broke out today in a big way -- ah, so-so. I managed to scramble aboard at 10 3/4 just as it started out of the gate. I know it went over 11 1/2, but I'm not sure where it closed. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 87 Fri Mar 25, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 00:46 EST Last night, I relied on memory when I noted the gap between the converging trend lines was 6 3/4 -> 6 1/2. That's what memory does. Those are the numbers which apply to early next week, which I had been looking at earlier in the evening. The 2 lines actually cross at the end of next week. The gap now is 6 7/8 -> 6 3/8. Todays's low point was 6 3/8, right on the support line, with the close at 6 1/2. Volume was very low, suggesting as little desire to sell as to buy. While stretching the timing a bit, today was _not_ any reason to abandon ship. As bleak as things may appear, I still see the odds favoring an imminent break upwards, but I keep my money in my pocket. So on to tomorrow. This is pretty good patience training. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 88 Fri Mar 25, 1994 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 12:10 EST Well, it broke and it's trading like crazy. When I last checked, over 400,000 shares had traded hands and I'm _sure_ they're not selling (with stock prices taking that dip yesterday, Atari looks like an Oasis). Here's a bit o' news. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Nintendo and Atari Games reach settlement in long-running court case;litigation settlement ends five-year court battle and rest REDMOND, WASH. (MARCH 24) BUSINESS WIRE - March 24, 1994--Nintendo of America Inc. and Atari Games Corp., a subsidiary of Time Warner Inc., Thursday announced that they have settled all litigation between them concerning alleged patent and copyright infringements and antitrust violations. Most terms of the settlement are confidential, however, both parties announced the following: All of the claims of the parties are dismissed, including judgments of patent infringement and copyright infringement previously awarded to Nintendo against Atari Games; Nintendo receives certain payments in connection with the settlement as well as certain patent licenses from Atari Games and Atari Corp. (not affiliated with Atari Games); and Atari Games again becomes a Nintendo licensee. "We are pleased that this litigation has been resolved," says Nintendo Chairman Howard Lincoln. "We are especially pleased that Time Warner, the parent company of Atari Games, interceded and cooperated in an effort to settle this case." Atari Games' Senior Vice President Dennis Wood also added: "We're glad that this protracted litigation is over and that we're on good terms with Nintendo; we are starting immediately to develop games for them again." The settlement between Nintendo and Atari Games is the result of litigation initially filed by Atari Games in 1988. The case is not related to the Atari Corp. vs. Nintendo case in which a federal jury in 1992 rejected claims that Nintendo had unlawfully monopolized the U.S. home video game market. Nintendo of America Inc., based in Redmond, Wash., is a wholly owned subsidiary of Nintendo Co., Ltd., Japan, the world's largest manufacturer and marketer of video games. Atari Games Corp., based in Milpitas, Calif., is a privately held corporation and is a developer and manufacturer of coin-operated video games. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Still Sailing, Sir Fransis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 89 Fri Mar 25, 1994 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 12:22 EST And here's what they meant by 'equity'... ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ATARI CORP. ANNOUNCES FOURTH QUARTER AND 1993 RESULTS AND ADDITIONAL EQUITY INVESTMENT BY TIME WARNER SUNNYVALE, Calif., March 24 /PRNewswire/ -- Atari Corp. (AMEX: ATC) today reported results of operations for the fourth quarter and year ended Dec. 31, 1993. Net sales for the fourth quarter 1993 were $8.5 million as compared to $25.5 million for the same quarter 1992. For the fourth quarter of 1993 Atari incurred a net loss of $22.6 million as compared to a net loss of $21.9 million in the same quarter in 1992. In the fourth quarter of 1993 the company took charges which included the writedown of $12.1 million in inventory and other items and $6.0 million for restructuring charges associated with the completion of the company's consolidation of its European operations and closure of its Australian subsidiary. For the year 1993 the company reported sales of $28.8 million as compared to $127.3 million in 1992. For 1993, the company incurred a loss of $48.9 million as compared to $73.6 million for 1992. Commenting on the results, Sam Tramiel, president of Atari, said, "While we are disappointed in the magnitude of our losses in the fourth quarter and 1993 as a whole, we believe that we have substantially completed our transition from our older technology products and the consolidation of our worldwide operations. In the fourth quarter of 1993, we successfully launched the Atari Jaguar, the 64-bit interactive multimedia entertainment system. The intense game, Tempest 2000 for the Atari Jaguar, ships this week and was recently awarded 'Game of the Month' by Die Hard Game Fan and Electronic Gaming Monthly magazines. In addition to the initial launch markets of New York and San Francisco, we have now introduced Jaguar in Los Angeles, and as availability of Jaguar hardware and software increases, we will broaden our distribution throughout the United States. As a result of increased spending for marketing activities and until such time as shipments of Jaguar products are made in substantial volume, we do not expect to achieve profitability." *****************here's the special bit**************** Time Warner Investment In addition, Atari Corp. entered into an agreement to sell 1.5 million shares of its common stock to Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) at a price of $8.50 per share for an aggregate investment of $12.8 million. The transaction would increase Time Warner's interest in Atari Corp. from approximately 25% to 27%. The agreement is subject to regulatory clearance and other formalities of closing. Sam Tramiel said, "We welcome the additional investment by Time Warner. These funds along with our existing cash balances will be used to expand Jaguar throughout the Untied States." ------------------------------------------------------------------------- They bought 1.5 million shares at higher than the market price?!?! What do _they_ know?!?! Still Sailing, Sir Fransis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 90 Fri Mar 25, 1994 AEO.MAG [?] Travis [?] at 14:25 EST Maybe this press release has some relevance to the price of Atari Corp's stock! Atari Corporation And Nintendo Reach Settlement In Patent Infringement Case Sunnyvale, CA -- Atari Corporation (ASE:ATC) today reported that Nintendo of America, Inc. and Atari Corporation have settled litigation concerning Atari Corporation's '114 Patent. The '114 Patent relates to horizontal scrolling in videogames. The '114 Patent is part of Atari Corporation's portfolio of pioneering patents in the computer and video game field. For a cash payment, Atari Corporation granted Nintendo a license to certain patents in Atari Corporation's portfolio. The License does not include Atari Corporation's patents related to LYNX or patents pending relating to the JAGUAR technology. Sam Tramiel, President of Atari Corporation, stated "This is an important settlement that will hopefully lead to resolution of other patent infringement claims." The '114 Patent and two other Atari Corporation patents are the subject of litigation between Atari Corporation and Sega which is pending in the United States District Court, Northern District of California. -- I was just FAXed this by Atari. Any misspellings are due to me. --Travis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 91 Fri Mar 25, 1994 D.ENGEL [Thunderbird] at 19:47 EST Poor Nintendo.... got caught stealing technology from Atari! Heh heh heh. Next up: Sega! ______________________ \hunderbird ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 92 Fri Mar 25, 1994 I.POSSEHL1 [Iver] at 20:08 EST Everybody hold your breath for what is to come next week. A year ago when the DJIA turned down ATC went up. Gene the contrarian would then go into pages of explenation. Is it happening again? Lets hope so! -> Iver ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 93 Sat Mar 26, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 01:59 EST Travis - - That fax you received:"... For a cash payment, Atari Corporation granted Nintendo a license to certain patents in Atari Corporation's portfolio" and settling a law suit, was contradicted in a release from Nintendo later in the day. VIZ: DOW JONES NEWS SERVICE 18:29 Nintendo Rebuts Atari Corp. Statement On Patent Settlement REDMOND, Wash. -DJ- Nintendo of America Inc. rejected Atari Corp.'s (ATC) characterization today of the companies' recent settlement, saying the ''suggestion that Nintendo paid anyone anything in connection with this settlement is completely false.'' In a press release, Nintendo said it ''received certain payments and patent licenses on a royalty-free basis'' from Atari to settle litigation involving Nintendo's patent relating to horizontal scrolling in video games. Earlier today, Atari said it granted Nintendo a license to certain of its patents for an undisclosed cash payment in connection with the settlement. - = - = A battle of PR departments? So, do you still think that fax sent out by Atari is what moved the stock today? More probably it had to do with the Time- Warner announcement. Veerrryyyy interesting, and most timely!! What say you? --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 94 Sat Mar 26, 1994 AEO.MAG [?] Travis [?] at 04:34 EST Sandy, It looks like they're both (NOA & ATC) going at it with duelling PRs. Go to Newsbytes and search on Nintendo AND patent. Read the last item. If it's ok with the SysOps, I'll post one quote each from the Newsbytes item, from August Liguori of Atari and Tom Gallatin of NOA: "The settlement talks have been long and complicated, but the bottom line is at the end of the day Atari had money in the bank." "In the settlement, Nintendo was given a royalty free license to all patents in question, including '114 and Nintendo was given a cash settlement as well. We are pursuing investigation into any claims from Atari that would state it differently." --Travis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 95 Sat Mar 26, 1994 J.BATTEY1 [J. L. Battey] at 10:39 EST Sandy, >A battle of PR departments? So, do you still think that fax sent >out by Atari is what moved the stock today? More probably it had to >do with the Time- Warner announcement. Veerrryyyy interesting, and >most timely!! What say you? WHAT'S THIS! Is Sandy biting the FA bullet? (D&RL) ?B'> Has anyone figured out my WHY yet? More later, I'm late for the Users' Group meeting. John L. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 96 Sat Mar 26, 1994 I.POSSEHL1 [Iver] at 17:01 EST Sandy -> I have read your recent articles on moving averages and cycles. I believe that the cycle theory may be somewhat useful, but has a basic flaw. Consider an example from astronmy. the Ptolemaic theory held that the motion of the planets could be described by adding cycle upon cycle to reach a close approximation of observed positions. Capurnicus proposed an exlpaination based upon a whole new presupposition: consider the Sun to be the center of the system. My point is that any wave form can be *approximated* be adding cycle on cycle. Now realize that the daily fluctuation of the stock market is far more complicated than planitary motions. Moving averages remove the daily ups and downs to reveil an overall trend. You claim to see several different cycles at work here. Fine, the cycles you describe may accurately describe observed patterns. But, I am not yet convinced that they can be used to reliable predict ATC for the next week much less the next month or year. In short, cycles are descriptive rather than predictive. Just for the record, I believe that fractal analysis has similar shortfalls but like to consider it in my decision making process. If it works for you then do it. On a related matter: On your March 11 chart you plot a "2/3 Speed Line" and state that the line is not arbitrary. Why is it that you make no mention of this line until it fits? As a matter of fact on your Feb. 11 chart we see another unrelated line (based on fractals?). Your descriptions were similar prior to the last breakout (and maybe also the one before that, I can't remember). Your consistantly revised the slope of the downtrend line until the breakout occured then would announce "See, I told you". All this does seem arbitrary to those of us less versed in your methods. Please do not consider these comments as a personal attack. They are intended to promote further discussion of your theorys. -> Iver ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 97 Sat Mar 26, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 17:10 EST John L. - - -> "WHAT'S THIS! Is Sandy biting the FA bullet? (D&RL) ?B'>" Glad you asked. I said "...most timely!!" Wait till you see my article in the April 1 GEnieLamp.ST. The Time-Warner announcement came right on time, to the minute. It had to be that way since the cycles were right in line for Friday's breakout. TWX was just playing the role assigned it by the chart. :- )) I had to submit the text already, but the discussion and the chart will show this as clear as day. If anyone doubts the power of the chart after this, they need a psychological test. ;-) As for the substance of Time-Warner's announcement, I think you and others are well aware of my long standing puzzlement about their role in Atari's affairs. I have long thought it would be a "natural" for TWX to exert some greater influence in the top management at ATC. I had pretty much given up, and I am still not sure just what's going on there. It's a minor amount of money, just about enough to keep Atari in business for another quarter. Recalling that Tramiel has a $240 million debt to TWX due in May, it may even be just TWX's way to preserve some value in this asset as they get ready to apply the squeeze. = - = - Travis - - Where do I see "Newsbytes"? There was a nice article in the NY Times this morning about the "soaring" of Atari's shares on the Time Warner announcement. According to one analyst: ``The Time Warner investment is a strong vote of confidence in Atari, even though it's not a large dollar amount,'' said Charles Lemonides, an analyst for Gruntal & Co. in New York. Noting that Warner spun off Atari in early 1984 to get Atari's losses off its own financial statements, he added: ``To see them come back and make an equity infusion does suggest that they've looked closely at Atari and see an upside.'' I'm from Missouri, and I don't believe this Lemonides fellow is doing anything more than talking through his hat. The typical hot air which Wall Street analysts can generate at the drop of a pin. What I'm looking for is the trigger which will say "panic time" to the remaining 4 1/2 million short shares. I'm sitting here waiting to collect. Is this it? A few days may tell the story. --Sandy PS: Commodore seems to be ready to bite the dust. Does this offer an opportunity to Atari? ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 98 Sat Mar 26, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 17:11 EST We are now in a period during which families get together and enjoy celebrating one holiday or another. Easter for most, Passover for many. I wish all a pleasant holiday. In particular, I wish a happy Passover to the Tramiel family who, I am sure, understand the meaning of "Exodus" more than most of us. In spite of what I may say from time to time, I wish them great success. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 99 Sat Mar 26, 1994 M.LYDA [mike] at 17:46 EST There was no mention of any of the press releases from Atari in todays Philadelphia Inquirer, but there was a nice full article on Commodore releasing their earnings report. It looks like we can eliminate the CD32 from any further discussions here on competitive game systems as it looks like there will not be a large push for it in the U.S. with such losses from C=. Did anyone notice that 3DO stock jumped $2 Fri??? So from the (dueling PRs) we can speculate either: 1) one side didn't understand the settlement (ha!) 2) one side is using the media to it's fullest extent by creating news 3) the settlement was forced on one party (notice the mention of Time Warner in the first press release) 4) Atari is trying to scare Sega into a cash settlement 5) Nintendo _never_ admits it was wrong or has failed 6) a takeover was blocked by Time Warner.................. (those were all pure speculation) Iver; I'm with you.. sort of.. T/A can only predict what other people using similar T/A will do. Friday was an F/A day as the majority of buyers and sellers were probably pushed by the press releases rather than their charts. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 100 Sat Mar 26, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 18:13 EST -> Iver - - A personal attack? From you? Nah, don't worry about it. Your criticisms are no more than I would expect, and I appreciate them. As for cycle theory. Yes, a Fourier Series can usually be tuned to most "wave forms" as you say. That is precisely the point. If any phenomenon can be described in terms of a set of cycles, than there is reasonable expectation that the cycles will persist for at least some time into the future. The problem is untangling the messy "wave form" into its component sine waves. I don't claim my particular set of cycles is the ideal for Atari, but it does seem to work -- as the new GEnieLamp article will make crystal clear -- right to the day. As to some justification for the relevance of cycles, imho they are measuring the natural ebb and flow of human emotions. I would even recall that we all came from the sea which makes us sensitive to natural cycles which the sea exhibits. I believe it can be demonstrated that there are elements of human physiology and psychology which still exhibit aspects of wave motions which linger from our ancestral history as water creatures. It may well be that certain solar system related cycles are also present in our make up for similar reasons. You don't have to agree with my attempt at justification; but if it works -- and I am still learning -- than don't complain. Now, if you can come up with some X-centric model, a la Copernicus, to replace my cycles, I will be the first to praise you and jump aboard the new theory -- if it works! As for the "2/3 Speed Line", yes, this time I was tardy in putting it forward. I don't plot it in advance all that often, but when I am puzzled as to why a particular move may have hit a barrier, I try this as well as other possibilities. In this case, the Speed Line lined up perfectly, and so I reported it. However, the computation is based on facts which occur in the chart _before_, not after, the fact. And the formula is a given, it doesn't fluctuate to fit the latest data. In the future, I will try to remember to plot it in advance for your benefit. Trouble is, Stalk The Market does not have a way to draw a trend line without having 2 price points on the chart That is one reason I don't use it that often -- perhaps a PC will fix that practical shortcoming. Or maybe I can use some picture editor which I don't have. As to revising trend lines. Trend lines are drawn through price high and low extremes. Sometimes one figures something is a local extreme, only to see sometime later that it was not. I don't believe I have ever changed something "sneakily". I try to explain and make clear what I am doing. I dislike just making a statement to the effect that "the price will rise" or "the price will be lower sometime within the next 6 months". I think you will agree that I am usually pretty long winded in explaining. And every explanation, once posted, is a potential target for criticism if something doesn't quite work out the way it was projected. I can only do what I can do, and these things can turn on a dime. As ATC did last November 4, but which I saw and made every effort to warn people in this topic about at the time. Maybe you remember that "ominous new kind of tea leaf which showed up in my tea pot" that day. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 101 Sat Mar 26, 1994 SL-DEV [Michael] at 19:08 EST Sandy, Mike Lyda: Yes, Commodore also had a miserable quarter. (And year.) Just like Atari. The main difference is that Commodore's sales were down from $237.7 million a year earlier to $70.1 million, while Atari's sales were down from $25.5 million to $8.5 million. Both are doing absolutely miserable, Commodore's just about two years behind Atari in its fall. You'll find an interesting topic in the Amiga roundtable similar to this topic. The reasons for Commodore's decline are different than Atari's---but they probably both have the same marketing team. ;-) It is sad, both companies are mere shadows of their former selves. If I was superstitious, I'd surmise that it was our support for them that made them decline. Hmm, if we supported Windows, would Bill G. have to sell his home? ;- ) Michael ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 102 Sat Mar 26, 1994 M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 23:40 EST Sandy - I second your sentiments towards the Tramiels, and wish you and yours a most pleasant holiday as well! For the rest of you out there... hey, time to start thinking about where you'll hide those Easter Eggs! Pssst! They tell me the pockets of the pool table are _NOT_ a good idea! ;^) Matt ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 103 Sun Mar 27, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 01:34 EST Michael (SL-DEV) - - I haven't been following Commodore, so I don't know why their sales have shrunk. However, in Atari's case, I think there was some plan behind their shrinkage. I can't prove it, but I think Atari arrived at a strategic decision a couple of years ago to clear the decks for the Jaguar and make an entirely new start. They realized that the way things were going with their present computer line, they might never turn it around. So they took advantage of a new technological breakthrough, which might give them a year or two lead on everybody, to remake the company. If so, it shows a capacity for long term strategic thinking which speaks well for them. Was it Jack? Was it Sam? Or was it Time-Warner who is behind it more than yet shows? I think they have run into unexpected problems, along with IBM, which are slowing the Jaguar, but they still have a chance to make it work. That Time- Warner has shown at least some interest in keeping them going may be a premature exposure of their designs. Or it may be as cynical as I suggested in an earlier message: namely Time-Warner has its claws ready to snatch up the whole business, with a technology which may fit like a glove with their own plans, and they have acted to make sure there is a business still left to grab when the time is ripe. That price of $8.50/share, which seems such a puzzle with the market price at $6.50. Why? I don't know the precise numbers, but I estimate that, before this deal, Time Warner needed approximately 29 million newly issued shares to bring their position to just over 50% of Atari. At $8.50, that comes to about $246 million. Just what I hear that Time Warner is owed by Tramiel, due in May. Come May, they could have swapped that debt for new shares in Atari, and thus own Atari. So circumstances made it necessary to inject some immediate money into Atari to keep them alive for another quarter. The price of $8.50 was already settled, so why not? Fundamental analysis! See where it can lead? If I were a Wall Street analyst, such tripe would be taken seriously and find its way into the WSJ. Shorts would rush out the door and ATC would jump up to 15 in a few days. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 104 Sun Mar 27, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 03:02 EST -> Iver - - I have re-read your criticism and see that you are upst about my using one downtrend line on Feb 11 which seemed to justify a fractal interpretation and, a month later, I drew another downtrend line which I labelled a "2/3 Speed Line" and described in detail just how it was constructed. You seem upset that I could change trend lines from one month to another. Sorry, but you are manufacturing something to criticize, without being reasonable. I already explained why some line might be changed because new data require it. But, in this case, I also used them for 2 different purposes, a month apart, and explained each one at the time. There was a breakout which I ascribed to the Fractal model. You didn't criticize it at the time. Then, when the breakout was halted at 7 1/2, I looked for a reason, and offered a perfectly legitimate construction to explain it, the 'Speed' line, which became the new trend line. I have stuck with that 'Speed' line right through till Friday's breakout, as you will see from a chart in the April 1 column. I have also re-tuned the cycle model for the April 1 olumn. It is so beautiful, I can't stop admiring it myself. What I had seen as a '20' day cycle is shown to be really 21 days. With this minor adjustment, it is shown to repeat 3 times through March 4/5, with the 4th consecutive complete cycle projected to end and turn up for the 5th consecutive repeat on March 25/26. Thus, after 4 complete cycles, it comes right to the day, and fully explains why the upturn I was expecting early in the week actually came on Friday morning. You might have me stick with one parameter forever, but that's not how things work. Things do change, and I would be stupid to insist that my old measurement has to be cast in stone. So, 20 days is changed to 21 days. Will you allow me that? --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 105 Sun Mar 27, 1994 STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 08:09 EST S.WOLF4 - Newsbytes is a computer/telecommunications/electronics-related news service available on GEnie, CIS, and other services, I believe. On GEnie, it's on page 316. They have at least 30 stories every weekday/business day. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 106 Sun Mar 27, 1994 J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 10:37 EST In Message 97 on Sat Mar 26, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] said: -| I had pretty much given up, and I am still not sure just what's going on -| there. It's a minor amount of money, just about enough to keep Atari in -| business for another quarter. This reminds me a lot of the company I worked for until just before Christmas last year. They were getting similar _monthly_ infusions from one of the BIG aerospace/electronics companies -- presumably in return for rights to whatever developed from some ongoing projects. Week before Xmas, the allowance stopped! And plop, no more little company. I hope the ATC situation isn't quite that close to the edge! ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 107 Sun Mar 27, 1994 SL-DEV [Michael] at 14:33 EST Sandy: nah, I don't think they're that bright. I believe they really hoped the MegaST would sell big, like the ST did. Nothing happened. So they kept working and then tried the STe. Didn't sell, try again. Then they convinced themselves that a TT workstation would sell. Didn't happen, so they came up with the Falcon, which this time would restore sales to ST levels. Nope, didn't happen, let's try a Jaguar. No different than the XEGS, Stacy, etc. Start designing something, announce it, see if people like the idea, then perhaps build it, see if anyone buys it. The strategy worked well on the ST, and they sold a couple of million, but they haven't had a hit since then. Who knows, maybe the Jaguar will be their next hit, but they've been up to bat quite a few times. The main difference this time is their PR is quite a bit better. The reasons Commodore is declining are due to sheer stupidity. They've sold twice as many Amiga's as Atari sold STs, and the majority of these were in the last couple of years as sales finally picked up, but then they made a bunch of stupid mistakes and sales collapsed. The biggest difference between Atari and Commodore from the software developers' standpoint is that Atari sales have been dropping slowly for years, and Amiga sales crashed in April of 1993 and haven't recovered since. You really should check out the equivalent topics in the Commodore section if you need to get cheered up about Atari. I recommended the same to them over there to read this topic since some people are getting really down. Just look for topics named "Commodore Dead?" ;-) Cheers, Michael ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 108 Sun Mar 27, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 19:54 EST The following is excerpted from Herb Greenberg's Business Insider column from the San Francisco Chronicle for 3/25/94: " Why Did So Many Get Blindsided By Media Vision? If the fiasco at Media Vision proves anything, it proves that many Wall Street analysts -- especially those whose firms represent the company as investment bankers - do little independent research outside what they're spoon fed by the company." I would just like to note that T/A is far less susceptible to such shenanigans and wishful thinking. Not completely, perhaps, because we're all human. But it's much less subjective all the way round. These professional "Fundamentalists" led a slew of investors to the proverbial slaughter. The stock only fell from the mid 40s to 10 in a few months, from 26 to 10 in one day last week. No T/Aer could have done it. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 109 Sun Mar 27, 1994 AFINKEL [andy] at 22:24 EST John L: perhaps you've discovered the truth about the mysterious linkage between TA and FA ... basically, TA is used by a certain Bavarian corporation to communicate with all of its employees. When the cycle says a stock should go up, they perform the appropriate action. Its a simple cause/effect relationship. If it weren't for the actions taken, on schedule, the market wouldn't be as predictable for them. TA is the art of reading those communications cycles, and investing appropriately. Of course, if a person gets _too_ good at it.... (I hope no one took this seriously :-) ) andy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 110 Sun Mar 27, 1994 J.BATTEY1 [J. L. Battey] at 22:36 EST Michael (SL-DEV), John Dvorak was on a call-in talk show on KRLD (1080 AM) last Friday and opined that Microsoft had pretty much run out of steam as a purveyor of operating systems. He said that there really was not much they could do with DOS or Windows that the consuming public would percieve as a real improvement, and that "Chicago" was more wind than sail. I'll be interested to see if he is anywhere near the mark. John L. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 111 Sun Mar 27, 1994 J.BATTEY1 [J. L. Battey] at 23:51 EST >.... basically, TA is used by a certain Bavarian corporation >to communicate with all of its employees. You're 5 days early, andy. Besides, I thought that was TM, not TA. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 112 Mon Mar 28, 1994 MIKE-ALLEN [NM~SysOp] at 00:23 EST Michael, >I believe they really hoped the MegaST would sell big, like the ST >did. Nothing happened. So they kept working and then tried the STe. >Didn't sell, try again. Then they convinced themselves that a TT >workstation would sell. Didn't happen, so they came up with the >Falcon, which this time would restore sales to ST levels. Nope, >didn't happen, let's try a Jaguar. Seems to me that with the MegaSTe, TT and Falcon030 there are two common threads that doomed the products; unrealistic pricing and lack of advertising. By the time Atari dropped the price on the MSTe, for instance, it was too late. The F030 was badly hampered by the "no mail order" edict. That has been corrected, but again too late. I know that certain dealers believe that they could sell all the MSTes and TTs they could get their hands on at current pricing. Atari has shown a great propensity for "hiding their light under a bushel basket." Too bad for us users not to mention 3rd party developers, such as yourself, and what few dealers that remain. Then Atari went and "right-sized" prior to the release of the Jaguar. Seems to me that they "under-sized." I'm beginning to believe that they don't have the staff to support the Jaguar, let alone the computer line. Atari seems to never have realized the importance of customer support. Yourselves, Gribnif, CodeHead, HiSoft (to name just a few) know what customer support is about. So do our few remaining good dealerships such as Toad, Computer STudio, TCN, etc. Can the old dog (Atari management) learn new tricks? If they are going to survive, they will have to. They should have learned by now that just having superior hardware won't insure success. They have to market and support also. I really feel sorry for Bob Brodie. He tries to do, by himself, what he should have a staff to handle. Too often he is the bearer of bad tidings. I just hope that he doesn't have to come on line and say "Today Atari announced the termination of its computer line." Mike Allen ST HelpDesk~Sysop Written: 6:43 PM Mountain Time Sunday, March 27, 1994 ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 113 Mon Mar 28, 1994 M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 00:31 EST Sandy - As far as _I'm_ concerned... you can bring it out to 22 days! Heck, go for 23 if the cycles demand! Your posts and observations continue to inform, educate and entertain... and I thank you for them. Hope your staying dry in all this rain, Matt ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 114 Mon Mar 28, 1994 STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 08:04 EST J.BATTEY1 - Okay, perhaps Mr. Dvorak CAN say something remotely intelligent on occasion! From him writing in PC magazines why IBM clones are so much better than other platforms and then in Mac magazines why Macs are so much better than other platforms, I'm surprised anyone with half a brain even listens to the man -- other than for a good laugh! Here's an interesting Time-Warner/Atari rumor... Atari and Time-Warner are to start up a jointly owned software publishing company within the next few months! ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 115 Mon Mar 28, 1994 J.HICKEY6 at 10:53 EST I have a dumb question - are the moving averages based on calendar days or trading days? From the discussions here, I suspect it's the former(unless the emotional cycles referred to are of people who don't get emotional unless the market is open;-) Jack ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 116 Mon Mar 28, 1994 CODEHEAD [Charles] at 11:21 EST Mike, >> I just hope that he doesn't have to come on line and say "Today >> Atari announced the termination of its computer line." I think we all know it's just a matter of time before this happens. Sam Tramiel has already admitted, in public statements, that Atari has "backed out" of computer production. - Charles ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 117 Mon Mar 28, 1994 ICDINC [Tom] at 12:23 EST Charles, That is not the kind of thing that you announce except maybe at a stockholder's meeting. - TOM - ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 118 Mon Mar 28, 1994 AEO.MAG [?] Travis [?] at 13:06 EST Steve, That Atari/Time-Warner software house thingy was a planned April Fool's Joke that a few magazine editors took the wrong way - they fell for it! (Ok, it - was- a well crafted joke! :) Alas, it's not true. I was going to run it in AEO this weekend, and after saying that I wouldn't do so, I may reconsider, just for laffs. --Travis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 119 Mon Mar 28, 1994 SL-DEV [Michael] at 14:29 EST J.L.: maybe so, but that won't stop Microsoft from selling tons of Windows 4.0 (Chicago). It will be bundled with almost every PC made. Users will upgrade (they bought all those DOS 6.2 upgrades!). Developers will eventually make 4.0 the minimum system requirement. Chicago has lots of new stuff in it and will be a vast improvement over 3.1. Don't discount it. Apple should be panicking because their gui lead is disappearing and they haven't updated their interface in eons. >I just hope that he doesn't have to come on line and say "Today Atari >announced the termination of its computer line." Nah, they'd never make Bob do that! They'd lay him off, then just put out a press release. ;-) Michael @ Soft-Logik Publishing Corp. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 120 Mon Mar 28, 1994 ARCHIVIST [Charlie] at 14:34 EST I'm not going to worry about Atari dropping the computer side untill I hear of massive layoff's (IE: everyone left) and the sale of Atari's HQ in Sunnyvale. Let's face it, a one product company is a one man company, and if the Jaguar is going to be Atari's only product as some say they have no need for large offices; they could run the show from a few rooms above a stip mall in Encino. Mind you, even that would mean little for this topic. The stock would keep on behaving weird. Charlie/sysop ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 121 Mon Mar 28, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 18:07 EST Jack - - -> "a dumb question - are the moving averages based on calendar days or trading days?" <- That is NOT a "dumb question". Most chartists eliminate weekend days from the horizontal axis, and otherwise pay attention only to business days. Some cycle analyzers do so also. I have tried both, and have settled on calendar days. If you look at the charts I've been putting up, there are appropriate gaps where non-market days occur. Fortunately, Stalk The Market also follows this convention. This also accommodates my concept that short/intermediate term market fluctuations are driven by swings in crowd emotions. As you say, people's emotions do not get turned off over a weekend. In fact, Monday morning trading has long been recognized as based a lot on emotional reactions which seem to capture the minds -- and fears -- of traders over weekends. There are at least 2 'rule-of-thumb' adages related to this: 1) "Monday's trading is counter trend"; 2) "Turn-around Tuesday and continuation Wednesday" (ie Tuesday often reverses Monday's direction, and Wednesday -- and Thursday -- usually continue Tuesday's direction. As most such sayings, these should not be regarded as "truths", just as interesting observations to keep in mind. Surprising how often it works out that way. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 122 Mon Mar 28, 1994 D.ENGEL [Thunderbird] at 22:54 EST Looks like C= is heading for chapter 11. There was some news on the reuters wire about C= posting anoither loss, and they were trying to negotiate with suppliers and creditors who were taking legal steps against them. Oh, yeah... the CD32 wasn't selling well, either. _____________________ \hunderbird ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 123 Tue Mar 29, 1994 SL-DEV [Michael] at 00:05 EST D.E.: most people discounted that stuff in their quarterly report as the standard stuff that they must report in order to avoid lawsuits from stockholders if they ever did file. Then they can say they warned 'em. I believe this has happened before. However, and perhaps Sandy with his omniscient powers in the stock market, can explain why commodore (CBU) wasn't traded on Monday. The quarterlies were quickly forgotten once people realize that the stock wasn't traded on Monday, and nobody seems to know why. Any idea what is up? (Perhaps the accountants thought a couple days warning was enough? ;-) After the last few years, nothing Atari or Commodore does can surprise me. Why are my two favorite computers in the hands of such, such... twits, for want of a better word? Michael ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 124 Tue Mar 29, 1994 J.BATTEY1 [J. L. Battey] at 00:18 EST SL-DEV, For Microsoft to say they have sold X-number of copies of Windows based on copies bundled with PC is like a tomatoe farmer bragging about how many tomatoe seeds he has sold. If the numbers they gave were of how many copies are in day-to-day use, it might be meaningful. I don't discount Windows 4, Mr. Dvorak does. The fact that most of the copies "sold" will, in fact, be given away also discounts it considerably. Back to the Topic at hand: CAVEAT: As always, I personnally have nothing "in play" but my ego. No investment is without risk. Over time, the risk of loosing money in the market is as great as that for profit. No one should place at risk more than they can comfortably afford to loose. Last week I said I thought it was time to buy, but that if you did not know why I thought so, then you should not buy. Here is my "WHY". First and foremost, as Sandy has said, the charts were indicating an impending break, either up or down. The problem was to predict, with some confidence, the most probable direction of the break & the potential momentum of the move after the break. 1) A repetition of the previously observed fractal pattern would indicate that the break would be upward. 2) In the March 4 1994 RTC, Bob Brodie indicated that the "equity" that would be brought into play would probably be something other than a new stock issue. 3) He also said that "Tempest 2000" would be going on the store shelves on the 28th (tomorrow) and that a widening of the Jaguar marketing & advertising effort would follow closely. 4) The National Association of Broadcasters which took place last week convention was scheduled to announce adoption or preliminary adoption of a standard for the data compression technique to be used for "Movies on demand" and/or 2 hour video CD's. The only method under consideration that was developed fully enough for adoption was MPEG2. Atari showed an MPEG2 cartridge at the New York roll-out last November. The only competition for this market is from Phillips' CD-I and the Pioneer Laser Active, both of which are more complex to produce and/or modifiy. Matsushita has said that a redesign (aka: a new model) of the REAL 3DO would be required. MY GUESS: If the pattern I have observed repeats, a peak just above 20 in mid May would be indicated. I believe that Atari will have cemented its market position with the Jaguar by early to mid June. The volitility of the stock should, by then, be extinguished, and its value solidified for a longer term. Such a situation would mean an end to repetitions of the fractal pattern, as volitility has been its driving force. John L. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 125 Tue Mar 29, 1994 I.POSSEHL1 [Iver] at 00:43 EST Sandy -> I really did not intend to be picky, and I am not upset. I read your columns, and postings as one approch to deciphering what ATC has done and where it is going. I believe this is your stated intention. My responce was just the written expresion of rumbelings I had in the back of my head. I do not want to appear unreasonable. You are right when you say the cycles need re-tuning. That is part of the process, and is to be expected. I have no problem with such tweeking. I also agree that you are reasonable in adopting new trendlines when the situation demands its. But I still say that they SEEM arbitrary. BTW I did mention in e-mail why I thought one of your support lines was based on an artificial blip in the ATC market. I probibly did not say anything about the other trend lines because they revealed what I wanted to see. (Those fickle emotions again.) I still like your basic analysis. I just thought it would be worth discussing some potential weaknesses. We all (you also, Sandy) need to take it with a grain of salt. I believe someone here said the charts can only be a guide. The best decission may still be contrary to what the chart says. The chart is a tool, not a rule. Right? ->Iver ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 126 Tue Mar 29, 1994 M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 01:51 EST Michael, I think 'twits' sums it up nicely! ;-) ===== J.L. - Thanks for the follow up to your 'buy' suggestion. An informative read! Matt ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 127 Tue Mar 29, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 01:52 EST Michael - - "Omniscient powers"? Thanks. My neighbor told me more than a week ago that "Amiga" was going bankrupt. He has 2 PC's, a Mac, and an old Apple II, and seems to know what goes on. The news wires only reported it last Friday. As I understand it, CBU was squirming to get enough new cash to keep going for a few months. A couple of friendly sources put in a few millions, but took lots of hardware for it. Seems about all they can do is file, and maybe that's why trading was halted. The NYSE has some pretty strict rules on things like liquidity, marketability, etc. to allow trading in a NYSE issue. I guess CBU fell below the minimum standards. The news wires tonight say nothing more than what I related above. Seems to me that CBU would have some good value if it can go through a Chapter 11 and come out clean with a new management. Could be the best thing that can happen to them and users of their computers. At the same time, they may offer a preview of what's in store for ATC. Although I personally suspect that Time Warner will make sure ATC survives, even as a division in their empire, if necessary. Maybe TW could buy up the remains of Amiga technology and put it into their new Atari division. It's pretty good stuff, I hear. :-) --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 128 Tue Mar 29, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 03:56 EST John L - - That's a great prognostication. The caterpillers are hatching in abundance it seems. What a gale is brewing! You were quite prescient last summer/fall with your fractal interpretations, although you were reluctant to put them up here. But you did encourage me to look into it. There is a serious course on Fractals offered in NYC for Wall Street professionals. I was thinking of taking it, but it costs $600 for one full day, and I'm not a professional so no one will pay my tuition. So I think I'll wait and try to find something more to read. If your "just above 20 in mid May" works out, I'll definitely sign up for the next offering of that course. I'm holding some call options which will pay the tuition -- if you are right. I'll even suggest to the school that they bring you to NYC as a guest lecturer. But if you are wrong, I'll chase you down in Texas. :-) BTW, I saw a fractal pattern some time back which required a lengthy stay within a narrow trading range before starting the next repetition. I remarked on it here and demonstrated it in GEnieLamp. That "lengthy stay" turned out to be correct, and I thought the first "break out" up to 7 1/2 -- a few weeks ago -- marked the beginning of the next repetition. I suspect you see the breakout last Friday as the start of the next repetition, and I can agree with that. If my long cycle is turning up, we may even have similar targets. However, I am still waiting for confirmation of that turn up, which may become evident any day now. The price has to get above the peak reached by the next earlier "40 day" cycle. That used to be at 8 1/8, but now another "40 day" has completed its cycle, and its peak was at 7 1/2. It was disturbing to see last Friday's breakout reach 7 1/2 within minutes, but then stay under that for the rest of ther day. Then it touched 7 1/2 again this morning, but quickly fell back to 7 and stayed there all day. If it gets above 7 1/2, preferably even above 8, within a few days, I think we are off the launching pad. Otherwise ....? --Sandy PS: If you're right about Atari being in the right place at the right time with an MPEG2 cartridge for "movies on demand", that might be just the justification Time-Warner needs to bring Atari into its fold -- something I have been ruminating on recently. $8.50/share is just the price T-W would have to pay for just enough new shares to own 50% and cancel the debt remaining from when they sold ATC to Tramiel. Seems to fit. ;-) ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 129 Tue Mar 29, 1994 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 05:55 EST Sandy, Glad to know those are "rules-of-thumb." I'd noticed these short term fluxes and even based my last prediction on them (when the last climb didn't reach 8 by Wed.) Would you say that good news on a Monday holds the price up better than good news on a Friday (that is, Friday news causes a strong rise because people want to get "into" it before the weekend but start to wonder over the weekend and sell off whereas Monday news gets to wend it's way through the week and ends up a stronger rise overall)? Maybe a "rule-of-pinky." Still Sailing, Sir Fransis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 130 Tue Mar 29, 1994 J.HICKEY6 at 10:11 EST Sandy, It's time I downloaded one of your charts. Also, I'll have to take another look at Stalk the Market. Does it provide scripting for Aladdin to download historical quotes? I just DL'd 6 months of Syquest daily quotes on the othevice($.05 ea.) and put them in an LDW Power spreadsheet. Now I'll try throwing in the weekends. Are quotes on GEnie cheaper? And, re: John L. and your call options - you might want to hedge a little with some PUT's at 5(7-1/2's are a bit expensive). Anyone - what ever happened to Lee Isgur of Paine Webber? I still have my copy of Isgur Portfolio. Lee was an early supporter of Atari(he thought the Lynx would be their salvation). Jack ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 131 Tue Mar 29, 1994 SL-DEV [Michael] at 13:49 EST Sandy: I checked the quotes on cis today and cbu was listed at .75, down 2.25 I believe. The attached notes said trading was suspended while the nyse reviewed whether to allow trading to continue. I guess lots of sellers, and no buyers. Depressing. Michael @ Soft-Logik Publishing Corp. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 132 Tue Mar 29, 1994 PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin!] at 17:11 EST Trading on CBU was halted Monday also. I think it is currently 'trading' @ $0.75. Anyone wanna try a Gene Windell? --Kevin ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 133 Tue Mar 29, 1994 SL-DEV [Michael] at 19:16 EST Here's the story on Commodore... Trading in Commodore's stock was halted on Monday when the stock fell to 75 cents a share with an unprecedented ratio of sellers to buyers. The NYSE kept Comdr stock from sales for most of the day as they reviewed its elegibility for continued listing. It was traded again The stock will not be available for overnight trading. Cmdr's chief financial officer was unavailable to speak with nyse officials monday and tuesday. (Probably in the bahamas after the quarterly report. ;-) Jeff Porter, director of advanced technology, said "We have every intention of restructuring." Michael ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 134 Tue Mar 29, 1994 J.BATTEY1 [J. L. Battey] at 21:03 EST Sandy, ACK!! EEEK!! YOWEE!! ZOUNDS!!! I hope no one ANYWHERE takes your "guest lecturer" line seriously! I am by no means qualified for such as that. This is all good clean fun here amomngst friends & interested adversaries, but let's not anyone get carried away. If I am lucky enough to be right on this call, I might give serious thought to hitching up to NYC and forking over the $600.00 just to find out why. As to the MPEG2 thing, Brodie, in the Novenmber RTC, said that Sam Tramiel was emphasizing this feature at the NY roll-out. I noticed at the time that most people seemed not to be listening. John L. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 135 Tue Mar 29, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 22:00 EST ISSUER: ATARI CORP. FILER: TIME WARNER INC. et al CLASS: COMMON SHARES OWNED: 15,770,000 26.8% NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION: On 2/24/94 Time Warner agreed to buy 1.5 million Atari common shares at $8.50 per share, subject to certain conditions. In addition, Atari has agreed to issue Time Warner up to an additional 150,000 shares upon the occurrence of certain events. Furthermore, Time Warner has been granted an option to buy up to 1.5 million shares upon the occurrence of certain events prior to 10/1/94 (END) FEDERAL FILINGS-DOW JONES NEWS 03-29-94 ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 136 Tue Mar 29, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 22:03 EST Sir F_ - - There have been serious studies made on the trading tendencies of different days of the week, month, and year. The Market Logic newsletter has published some of them, and actually has a trading system based upon them which seems to be successful. It buys into a mutual fund for only the days expected to be positive by their studies, and sells out after the day or days is done. They run some real time portfolios doing this. One advantage is that they are invested only some small percentage of the time, perhaps 20% of all business days. This greatly reduces the risk. They claim that perhaps 60% or more of a year's advance in price is actually attributable to these 20% of the days. For example, they have found that the last few days of the month and the first day or two of the next month are statistically positive. Also the days surrounding holidays. By being invested only on these days, they have good odds working for them. They apply no other criteria to whether or not they invest, such as bear or bull market, interest rates, etc. It's predetermined which calander days to be invested and which to be in cash. I've thought of trying this, but haven't gotten around to it yet. Also, it takes most of the excitement out of the game. I think I'd go bonkers having to sit out 80% of the time, waiting for just those particular days. I may try it with some part of my funds. There are other such situations. I'm sure you've heard of the "January effect" -- which seems to come earlier each year. I have tried this one, and made some good trades. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 137 Tue Mar 29, 1994 D.ENGEL [Thunderbird] at 22:27 EST |> >From: email@example.com (Scott Narowetz) |> >Subject: Atari in the Wall Street Journal |> >Date: Tue, 29 Mar 1994 01:51:33 GMT |> >Hopefully this will make it out (our school's system has been messed up all |> >day). Here's a scan of today's WSJ. Looks like Atari bit it profit- wise. |> >Hopefully the cash infusion from Time Warner will help get the Jag out the |> >door. Here goes... |> Opps, messed up (got the silly thing in REVERSE) |> LET'S TRY IT AGAIN.... |> Atari Loss Widened During 4th period As Sales Fell 67% |> By a Wall Street Journal Staff Reporter |> |> Sunnyvale, Calif. - Atari Corp. reported a wider fourth-quarter |> loss on a 67% drop in sales and warned that it won 't be profitable |> until it cranks up shipments of its new Jaguar video game product. |> But the game maker's stock rose 87.5 cents to $7.375 in |> American Stock Exchange trading on news that Atari got a |> cash infusion from Time Warner Inc., which bought $12.8 million of |> Atari stock, boosting its stake to 27% from 25%. Separately, Atari |> said rival Nintendo of America Inc. settled a lawsuit alleging |> Nintendo had infringed on an Atari patent for horizontal scrolling |> in video games. Terms weren't disclosed. Nintendo of America is |> a unit of Nintendo Co. of Japan. |> Atari's Loss for the quarter was $22.6 million, or 39 cents a |> share, after a $12.1 million charge for writing down inventory and |> a $6 million restructuring charge. In the year-earlier quarter, |> Atari had a loss of $21.9 million, or 39 cents a share. Sales fell |> to $8.5 million from $25.5 million. |> Analysts said the results were in line with expectations, |> given Atari's switch from selling computers in Europe to selling |> video games in the U.S. The "implosion on the revenue line was not |> unexpected," Gruntal & Co. analyst Charles Lemonides said. He added |> that the Time Warner cash infusion "was a big vote of confidence." |> In a statement, Atari said it has "substantially completed" |> its transition to selling video games. The game maker's future |> hinges largely on the success of its full-motion, |> graphics-intensive Jaguar games, which are now selling in San |> Francisco, New York and Los Angeles. In a statement, the company |> said that because of increased spending to market the games "we do |> not expect to achieve profitability" until Jaguar ships in |> substantial volume. " |> Atari and Nintendo contradicted each other about the outlines |> of Friday's patent-infringement settlement. Atari said in a |> statement that Nintendo had paid cash to settle and to license |> Atari patents. But Nintendo said in its own statement that it |> received "certain payments and patent licenses on a royalty-free |> basis from Atari." An Atari spokesman replied that "Nintendo is |> full of it." Atari has a similar suit pending against Sega of |> America Inc., a unit of Japan's Sega Enterprises Ltd. |> Separately, Nintendo said it and Atari Games Corp. - |> which is separate from Atari Corp. - settled all patent litigation |> between them concerning alleged patent infringement and antitrust |> violations, Nintendo didn't elaborate. Atari Games Corp. is 78% |> owned by Time Warner, which is also a major investor in Atari Corp. ___________________ \hunderbird ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 138 Tue Mar 29, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 23:49 EST Jack - - If you do more than 1 or 2 charts per month, and you do it on an ST, I strongly recommend you get Stalk The Market. It has drivers for d/ling data from several services; however I only use DJN/R and GEnie, so I can't vouch for the others. It has a special driver for GEnie's Current Quotes (p270) which I find most convenient for daily updating. A portfolio of about 25 stocks takes about 1 minute on GEnie (about 5 cents each night) to d/l the day's data. All you do is select a portfolio of stock symbols (STM allows 4 portfolios) and the data service, then press 'download' and sit back and wait. STM takes over and does it all. When it returns control to you, all the existing charts have been updated, or new ones created. It has provision for tranfering data to and from LDW and other spread sheets. If you want to see some examples of STM charts, look at my GEnieLamp articles. Next 'Lamp' will be in the library in a few days; or look at the mid-month reports which were set up specifically for my stuff. I will soon be making charts in color, although I am perfectly satisfied with mono. As for Lee Isgur: I have his 'Portfolio' but have never used it; his role in creating this program was just as an advisor. If you use it, let me know what you think. Lee Isgur has 3 main talents, none of which he carries off very well, imho. He is a stock broker. He gets quoted in San Francisco newspapers from time to time, mostly on Atari stories, and mostly nonsense. He is a competitive sailor of some reputation and does TV commentary on some of the major sailing competitions. His best talent, imho, is staying married to his wife who is a world class competitor in Olympic and long distance sailing. Are you into SYQT? I've been watching it base out for a few months and jumped aboard when it seemed to beakout. It was one of the few stocks to buck today's hurricane. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 139 Tue Mar 29, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 23:50 EST John L - - If you are right, your name will be known all over Wall Street. That's what comes of going public. :-) If you are wrong, it will pass as the dawn, and your life will go on without change. So what you got to lose? >> "As to the MPEG2 thing .... I noticed at the time that most people seemed not to be listening." << You are correct. I didn't notice it, and I don't recall anyone else mentioning it. Yet it could be the best weapon in Atari's arsenal, the reason for it's being saved from bankruptcy. So much for F/A. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 140 Wed Mar 30, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 01:01 EST T-Bird - - That WSJ report seems dramatic, but it means nil. The only financial factor which means anything for Atari these days is CASH. They need some more because Jaguar production is still slowed by technical problems. So TWX stepped up and delivered. Or else there would be no Atari by summer. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 141 Wed Mar 30, 1994 GENIELAMP.ST [John G] at 01:48 EST Sandy, I promise, I promise! John ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 142 Wed Mar 30, 1994 STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 05:30 EST I just want to shake the hand of the Atari official who stated, "Nintendo is full of it!" ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 143 Wed Mar 30, 1994 ICDINC [Tom] at 08:07 EST Sandy, You indicate that Jaguar production is being slowed by technical problems. I am not so sure of that. I can think of two other reasons to slow production.. 1) They need cash to pay for delivery and float terms with the bigger dcustomers. 2) They may be holding back until more "killer" titles are available. You don't want to saturate the market until you can build a huge demand. There is demand at this point but I wouldn't call it huge. - TOM - ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 144 Wed Mar 30, 1994 J.HICKEY6 at 08:33 EST Sandy, I did use Isgur Portfolio for a few years, but never was able to get the "updates" with IS Talk(the included telecom program). It really was a nice package otherwise. Unfortunately, it was bought out by Atari haters at Electronic Arts, and put in the closet. Yes, I am into Syquest, and capture all their press releases using ENS on the other service. Do daily quotes on GEnie flag news items? I'll have to give it another try. I hope it's faster than the last time I used it(but then that was through the Schwab RT). STM sounds like it's worth checking out. Jack ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 145 Wed Mar 30, 1994 C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] at 09:07 EST OK, lets take this apart- On 2/24/94 Time Warner agreed to buy 1.5 million Atari common shares at $8.50 per share, subject to certain conditions. In addition, Atari has agreed to issue Time Warner up to an additional 150,000 shares upon the occurrence of certain events. Furthermore, Time Warner has been granted an option to buy up to 1.5 million shares upon the occurrence of certain events prior to 1/10/94. "On 2/24/94 Time Warner agreed to buy 1.5 million Atari common shares at $8.50 per share, subject to certain conditions." Is that date right? or should it say 3/24/94? What certain conditions are they refering to? "In addition, Atari has agreed to issue Time Warner up to an additional 150,000 shares upon the occurrence of certain events." Occurrence of what events? "Furthermore, Time Warner has been granted an option to buy up to 1.5 million shares upon the occurrence of certain events prior to 10/01/94." Again, what events? And why is the date of 10/01/94 important? Carson ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 146 Wed Mar 30, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 14:08 EST Tom - - You are probably correct about the production slowdown. I was trying to give Atari the benefit of the doubt that the slowdown is due to circumstances beyond their control. OTOH, your point that "They need cash to pay for delivery and float terms with the bigger customers" assumes IBM is not paying for production costs and taking all customer payments directly. That could be a way around ATC's low cash position, if IBM is so inclined. Waiting for more titles is very reasonable. Carson - - Good questions. Your interpretation of what's going on -- and anyone elses -- would be welcome. My guess is on TW taking over. But this is all in the realm of F/A, which is not my thing. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 147 Wed Mar 30, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 14:08 EST Jack - - GEnie Current Quotes ('CQ' on page 270) only provides the current and previous days' Hi/Lo/Close/Vol. It gets updated every business day about 7:30 pm. No news. Runs fast, about 2 secs per issue, including stocks and mutual funds. Allows you to pre-establish lists of 30 symbols max each -- ie with your function keys, or with the STM portfolio list. DJN/R has a $30/month non-prime time deal which I use for historical quotes, news and PRs, insider trading, S&P reports, and lots more. --Sandy BTW, why spend all that prime time money on news bulletins and PRs? Seems to me to be a big drain on your funds, and is 99% meaningless. How often have you made a sudden decision to trade because of such an item? I can only recall doing one in the past year, and that was triggered by a news item on CNBC. It wasn't yet on his screen when I immediately called my broker to sell me out. The stock went from 9 1/2 to 6 1/2 in 10 minutes; then CNBC said the reporter had made an error. I immediately called my broker and bought back in at a lower price than I had sold 15 minutes earlier. The correction was also not yet on the broker's screen when I called back. He was rather surprised by it all. The next day, the stock was at 13. If I had a habit of searching online for news items during the day, the whole affair would have been over before I found out what was going on. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 148 Wed Mar 30, 1994 ARCHIVIST [Charlie] at 16:27 EST Steve-J, remember that T-Bird quoted that from the Internet, so I imagine it's not an exact quote. :-) Tom, I think you're right about Atari being cash strapped because of floats. Somehow I don't think EB and Babbages are paying cash-up-front for their Jag's, so Atari has to roll their ready cash until the payments from them come in. The nice thing about the Time-Warner booster shot is that there will be more cash to roll with, meaning more units in the pipe each month. Carson, on the first stock trade I think the main condition is SEC approval. On the other two... who knows. Maybe on the condition that the stock rises above 8.5 by October? :-) Charlie/sysop ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 149 Wed Mar 30, 1994 B.AEIN [B Man] at 23:24 EST What do you think would happen if Atari came out with a press release saying that Mortal Kombat II was being developed for the Jag? Would the stock serg then fall back, or possibly start on it's upward trek? Could we possibly see a short squeez? What if the Jag was the only game system MKII is going to be released on??? I may know something, then again it may be bunk, only time will tell. Bman ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 150 Thu Mar 31, 1994 E.EPPERSON [Ed] at 01:48 EST I don't know what date the 1.5 million was supposed to trade (Feb or Mar) but it's apparently done! News at 2151 EST states that "Warner Comm reports 26.80% ownership of ATARI" That's very close to the 27% which was estimated (relative to the 25% they owned previously). Ed ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 151 Thu Mar 31, 1994 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 02:19 EST < >> I agree. It's about time someone bit back at Nintendo. From what I understand, although Atari may not have worded it to Nintendo's liking, they _did_ end up with money after all was said and done. (knowing Nintendo, I wouldn't be surprised if they confused Corp. with Games!!) Anyone care to elaborate on the WMS deal? Seeing as how they are a Jaguar developer and EDGE magazine has them in a hardware deal to produce MKIII (rumor?) _AND_ how they've dumped Acclaim to do their own games, how should this affect Atari? Still Sailing, Sir Fransis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 152 Thu Mar 31, 1994 STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 05:29 EST K.DRAKE - I just love it when people use that kind of raw language in a press statement! That's how I'D sound, being the sarcasm monger that I am. Nintendo -- What a bunch of pipe-smokers! What's this about WMS doing it OWN development? I didn't know that THAT was why they reportedly weren't going to renew Acclaim's MK license. I guess they were getting tired of just getting a PIECE of the console sales! ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 153 Thu Mar 31, 1994 PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin!] at 07:51 EST Steve-J, You a "Sarcasm Monger"??? :) Never. I give that title to T-Bird. --Kevin ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 154 Fri Apr 01, 1994 R.WHITTAM [Ron - ABUG] at 02:29 EST The JAGUAR is being advertized on TV in Boise, Idaho. Does this mean that production is back up? I have often wondered if such advertizing actually effects the stock price? When people see a GOOD advertizing don't they just buy the product - - - or does it make those in the stock market sit up and take notice as well? - Ron ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 155 Fri Apr 01, 1994 STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 06:54 EST PG.MUSIC - Doug's more of a HYPE monger. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 156 Fri Apr 01, 1994 PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin!] at 08:07 EST Steve-J, :) --Kevin ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 161 Sat Apr 02, 1994 PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin!] at 12:41 EST Oh, a "sarcasm" monger? --Kevin ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 163 Sat Apr 02, 1994 G.CROSS [Jerry] at 16:32 EST What is it with the Canadian's in Windsor? Why no Atari support? There is a computer store here in Flint that is trying to support Atari. He told me that he had a guy from Canada come over and discovered that he could get some European mags here for only $9.95. He said over in Canada they were $15 (when he could find them). Now, I'm happy to help out, but he took the last copy! MY COPY!!! ;( sniff..... ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 164 Sat Apr 02, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 20:28 EST Hey! I'm watching the NY Mets play the Texas Rangers, and there is a Jaguar ad. And a second one! Good show. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 165 Sun Apr 03, 1994 TOWNS [John] at 00:28 EST Well.. I will say this, if there was some sort of plan a couple of years ago to "clear the decks for Jaguar" then I was never aware of it. The bottom line in my mind is that the Tramiels are in the business of making money. There are willing to do something as long as there is a profit in it. The facts are that the computer side of things hasn't been very profitable as of late. (BTW.. it could be argued that the entire company hasn't been too successful in the past 3 or so years.) And by theway, the view of being in it for the profit is not a bad one. You can bet your last dollar that Bill Gates is in this game for the money. He isn't doing it because he loves us and wants us to be happy. I do remember hearing about Jaguar a long time ago. But, it was more of an idea and a research project. Atari funded it and hoped that their investment would pay off. But, I certainly don't think that the cleared the decks for Jaguar back then. They would have been foolish to do so. Anyway, that's me thoughts. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 168 Sun Apr 03, 1994 J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 14:03 EDT --- several posts below --- (that's how Aladdin works!) In Message 163 on Sat Apr 02, 1994 G.CROSS [Jerry] said: -| he had a guy from Canada come over and discovered that he could get some -| European mags here for only $9.95. He said over in Canada they were $15 -| (when he could find them). I believe Canada recently started (or increased) a MAGAZINE TAX that's rather significant... though 50% seems a bit more than significant!! ------------ In Message 154 on Fri Apr 01, 1994 R.WHITTAM [Ron - ABUG] said: -| When people see a GOOD advertizing don't they just buy the product - - - -| or does it make those in the stock market sit up and take notice as -| well? For me, the stock analysis takes enough time that I rarely get to see such ads, so it makes no never-mind! I buy and sell stock depending on the charts and news; but there are many others who do it just on "instinct" or maybe even on good ads. ------------ Has anyone fathomed the exact difference between Atari Corp. and Atari Games Corp? The news articles seem to take great pains to point out that they are different and seperate, yet there seems to be significant 'ties' between them, also. Jim W2JC in Northern NJ --... ...-- -.. . .-- ..--- .--- -.-. -.- ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 170 Sun Apr 03, 1994 C.LABELLE [Tintin] at 14:16 EDT Jerry, With the devaluation of the CDN$, 10$ US is just about equal to 15$ CDN. Anyway, can't you _reserve_ your copy? Most stores will do that. In Ottawa, the magazines sell for 7.50$ to 9.95$ CDN. As for Atari support, well you know, since the closure of Atari Canada, not much is going on. Except dealers closing. Right now, the plan is: stop supporting all products anywhere but the Jaguar in the US. And maybe keep the Falcon in the music niche. That way they have a chance in making money. My vision is, after and if they become highly successful with the Jaguar, then they will start selling computers again. And it will be a new Falcon. The current Falcon, despite all its features, is still not competive for selling without educating the public. Probably the best bet would be to sell it as a 486 (with Falcon Speed). And then let the customers discover its wonders on the Atari side. In any case, Atari doesn't have the cash to market it. Heck, they are striving for cash to market the Jaguar. Tintin ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 171 Sun Apr 03, 1994 AEO.1 [Albert Dayes] at 16:46 EDT Ron Whittam. Atari Corp does home video games and computers while Atari Games does the arcade games. Games like Hard Drivin. STeel Talons and soon M-Tek are some of the many different games the Atari Games has come out with. Since they share the same name Atari they need to make sure that everyone knows they are different companies. -- Albert ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 173 Sun Apr 03, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 19:27 EDT NY Times Magazine, Sunday April 3, crossword puzzle. Clue for '1 Down': "Arcade Name" (5 letters) Correct word: "Atari" = - = T-Bird and Steve-J: You 2 guys, whoever you are, have had many interesting things to say about Atari. I have never figured out how you get your information. So why not keep that up and forget the other? --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 174 Sun Apr 03, 1994 A.FASOLDT [Al Fasoldt] at 19:42 EDT John, Thanks for the insight. Al ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 179 Thu Apr 07, 1994 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 01:15 EDT O.K. Now it appears that the 6.5 mark that I mentioned in an earlier post has been breached and is now holding the stock down rather than bouying it up. It's not really ditching but I don't like the idea of the stock being this low. One good thing (maybe?) is that over the past few days, there haven't been that many shares traded. Would that mean investor confidence. Still Sailing, Sir Fransis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 180 Fri Apr 08, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 01:59 EDT Sir - - Your 6 1/2 seems to be serving as a center for minor fluctuations. It seems the '21' day cycle moved its full amplitude in one day, up to 7 1/2. The hurricane that hit these precincts evidently threw the cycles, and just about every other T/A approach, into "blooey" land. One good thing about T/A is that it gives one a handle on decision making. IE, it provides entry and exit points of various degrees of risk. In the case of ATC, no entry point of reasonable risk has shown up for some time, so a prudent T/Aer would have avoided buying into ATC, and other blunders, during this period. I picked up a few options, and I'll probably see them disappear without a whimper. At this time, ATC has been awarded 1st prize for 'Most Frustrating Stock of the Week'. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 181 Sat Apr 09, 1994 M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 00:59 EDT Sandy ! "blooey-land" !!! Ah, I know it well. Seems like I've spent my life there! Matt ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 182 Mon Apr 11, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 00:36 EDT The doldrums? Guess this is what they feel like. In cycle terms, the 21 day cycle for ATC started anew on March 25, so it peaked on April 5-6, and was heading down the rest of last week and next week. Next longer cycle also seems to be on the downside, so things look a bit dour for a while longer. Has to get above 7 1/2 for a high risk buy signal, and above 8 1/8 for a low risk buy. Fortunately, for now, the amplitudes seem to have flattened out. Where ATC was a model example of T/A until January, it has evidently decided to play coy since. All us T/Aers can do is watch and wait until the chart says otherwise. I have put together a group of charts for 16 stocks which have been mentioned in these precincts at one time or another. Packed into 4 pictures, in the mid- month GEnieLamp.ST. Should appear in the library "soon". Much there to contemplate. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 183 Mon Apr 11, 1994 C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] at 09:52 EDT Sandy, No one has said it in a while (though I'm sure we are all thinking it) but, thanks for sharing your unique insights about T/A & ATC. I recently purchased Stalk the Market & as soon as time permits, I'm goimg to sit down with it & all your charts and articles. Carson ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 184 Tue Apr 12, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 01:51 EDT An interesting excerpt: "April 11, 1994--Three Time Warner Inc. game and multimedia units Monday have announced that they plan to integrate their operations. The units are Time Warner Interactive Group, Atari Games Corp. and Tengen Inc. They will operate under the common name, Time Warner Interactive." "The new structure will allow the organization to develop and publish interactive consumer entertainment products that span across all platforms from location and coin-op video games, to plug-n-play cartridges for Sega and Nintendo systems, CD-ROM entertainment tiles (for game-based machines as well as computer platforms) and interactive TV applications." "... the company's combined international sales force will effectively reach all channels of retail distribution ranging from toy and computer stores, to record and video outlets and consumer electronic stores... These will range across eight consumer platforms, including MPC, DOS and Mac CD-ROM, Sega Genesis and Mega Drive, Sega CD, Super Nintendo and Sega Game Gear.'' _ _ _ So where is any mention of 30% owned ATC and Jaguar? = - = Carson - - Thanks for the spontaneous sentiments. Just a note to let any reader know that I didn't pay you for that :-) --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 185 Tue Apr 12, 1994 M.LYDA [mike] at 18:08 EDT Sandy; Atari Games Corp. was listed as a Jaguar developer wasn't it? And I remember seeing a small article in Computer Graphics World last Fall (I think..) that announced Atari Games Corp. had signed on as a 3DO developer for their arcade games..... and now they have merged with Time Warner IG to develop Nintendo and Sega related products. hmmmm what a tangled web they weave. Who was the press release from? If Time Warner, could they have simply listed products (Nintendo, Sega) that the Wall Street types would be familiar with? Although it said the products would "range across eight consumer platforms" it included MPC which will be available on many platforms other than the ones listed, right? ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 186 Tue Apr 12, 1994 M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 22:33 EDT Sandy, curiouser and curiouser! Matt ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 187 Tue Apr 12, 1994 M.DEVER1 [mike] at 23:04 EDT Hi guys, In Philadelphia, I've just seen Jaguar adds on mtv between 11:30 and 12 midnight. Also, the stock should pick up ( in my opinion ) the local store Games Gallery is out of Jaguars, and out of Tempest 2000. Just thought you'd like to know. Mike ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 188 Wed Apr 13, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 00:24 EDT Mike - - It was a TW announcement. But don't ask me to interpret it -- although my excerpting probably influences what you see. I put it up here to see what others think. I gave up trying to understand these things long ago where ATC is concerned. Meanwhile, all the major cycles are now pointing down. And, as a result, ATC is plumbing the depths. This I understand, at least better than I do Atari's relationship with Time Warner. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 189 Wed Apr 13, 1994 STEVE-J [EeEckyThump!] at 04:52 EDT Any idea why Electronic Arts's stock dropped 2 1/4 points on heavy trading (2.5 million shares) Monday? ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 190 Wed Apr 13, 1994 C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] at 09:40 EDT I hate it when ATC dips below 6. I'm always tempted to buy more. I just have to learn to sell it when its up & buy it all back when it dips. Actually I'm in it for the long run so I patiently wait. Carson ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 191 Wed Apr 13, 1994 M.DEVER1 [mike] at 21:43 EDT My local store, Games Gallery, has been restocked with Jaguars and Tempest 2000. It's really great to see IBM handle shipping in such a professional manner. The store is rarely out of stock for more than 3 days. The machine seems to be selling steadily, and this is April. Can any of you tell me if Philadelphia is the norm, are other stores seling the Jag as well? Mike / Philadelphia ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 192 Wed Apr 13, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 22:06 EDT Steve-J [isthatu?] - - I forget the details, but rumors hit Broderbund which dropped 8%. Other things being equal, on a combined basis ERTS should have dropped about 2% or 1/2 point. But other things are not equal in today's market, so ERTS dropped 11%. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 193 Wed Apr 13, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 22:07 EDT In an announcement by Atari, the following quotes appeared: "Tempest 2000 is the hottest selling title on Jaguar today," said Peter Roithmayr, senior buyer at Electronics Boutique. "We sold over 60 percent of our Tempest 2000 stock within four days; most sold in the first two days of shelf life. Tempest 2000 is in very high demand because the popularity of the Jaguar has far exceeded the gaming industry's expectations." "Tempest, by itself, is worth the price of the Jag -- Tempest 2000 for Jaguar is further proof that the next level of gaming has arrived," said Dave Halverson, DieHard GameFan. So, why has ATC dropped to 5 3/4? Those danged cycles.... --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 194 Thu Apr 14, 1994 J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 02:10 EDT In Message 188 on Wed Apr 13, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] said: -| Meanwhile, all the major cycles are now pointing down. And, as a -| result, ATC is plumbing the depths. This I understand, at least better -| than I do Atari's relationship with Time Warner. Sure is doing my margin in! Argh! even us tekies get caught once in a while! My only consolation this week is bragging about all the stocks i DID get out of before they dropped... or I'd be getting margin calls, for sure. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 195 Thu Apr 14, 1994 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 08:22 EDT Carson, <> I know what you mean. The lower the buy, the quicker it doubles. If it goes to 5 though, you can just say that another $500 of my money has went Atari's way. :) Sandy, What do the charts say as far as how low Atari _can_ go? Still Sailing, Sir Fransis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 196 Thu Apr 14, 1994 ARCHIVIST [Charlie] at 18:16 EDT Mike, it seems to be so in every city the Jaguar is currently released in. Come join us in Category 26, which is ALL about the Jaguar. Charlie/sysop ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 197 Thu Apr 14, 1994 D.ENGEL [Thunderbird] at 19:03 EDT To whom it may concern: This is the topic for Atari stockholders to talk in... NOT the Jaguar sales reports topic. Also, if you're NOT a stockholder then you don't belong in this topic. There can be no exceptions. We must follow the rules and regulations set forth in the contract you signed when you applied for this service. Thank you for your cooperation. ________________________ \hunderbird ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 198 Thu Apr 14, 1994 J.BRENNER1 [See Flat] at 19:57 EDT T-Bird, what ruffled your feathers? ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 199 Thu Apr 14, 1994 M.DEVER1 [mike] at 22:28 EDT Sorry ThunderBird, But I thought that the number of machines that sell has a direct baring on the price of the stock. I would think that a wall street analyst would be looking for clue's as to how well atari is doing in this quarter. first quarter 1994. An analyst would want to know, before the madding crowd, what kind of numbers atari is likely to report for this quarter. I've seen the stock move for two different reasons: 1) Press releases... NEWS 2) Quarterly reports... the Money. Sorry, I'm in the wrong topic. Mike in Philly ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 200 Thu Apr 14, 1994 C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] at 23:55 EDT Mike in Philly, I didn't see anything wrong with your post. Maybe T-Bird is/was having a bad day. The guy is a wealth of good information & it is appreciated. But,......... >if you're NOT a stockholder then you don't belong in this topic. I have to disagree. I'm sure I'm not the only one that became a stockholder after I had frequented this topic. I have learned a wealth of information from everyone here. If the stock goes much lower I'm sure many more will be joining our ranks. :) Carson ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 201 Fri Apr 15, 1994 SL-DEV [Michael] at 00:17 EDT >Also, if you're NOT a stockholder then you don't belong in this topic. There >can be no exceptions. We must follow the rules and regulations set forth in >the contract you signed when you applied for this service. What kind of nonsense is this? Let me check the topic header... "Here is the place for discussion and information for stock holders and other interested parties of any news and events concerning ATARI stock." The topic header clearly states that the topic is for anybody interested in Atari stock. Take a chill pill. Michael ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 202 Fri Apr 15, 1994 J.NESS [Jim] at 00:34 EDT Sandy - re: sales are good, why is the stock down... You have to remember that so far all these hot sales are peanuts. If Atari has shipped 2500 copies of Tempest (unlikely), they've probably billed $50,000. That's nothing for stock traders to get excited about. How many Jaguars have been shipped? Maybe by now they've hit 50,000? So that's maybe $8M total? Is THAT enough to impress shareholders? Probably not, considering the losses claimed for the past many quarters. Atari still hasn't shifted out of 1st gear with this product, and that's got to make people a little leary about investing. ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 203 Fri Apr 15, 1994 S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 00:44 EDT If anybody here remembers that 21 day cycle which gave us one morning of excitement on March 25, after helping push ATC down these past days it has reached the next turning point. Yup, here we are again, 21 days later. That cycle should turn up Friday or over the weekend, and give ATC a brief respite from the duldrums. Unfortunately, the '42' day is topping and heading down, and the '120+' day, which I saw as starting up early in January, is due to bottom out in another 2-3 weeks. So, a few days of respite, followed by a couple weeks of riding the slide, then possibly we can get the show back on the road. Amplitudes have been small, so price movements should not be too large, but 5 is not out of the question. Thanks for small things. Meanwhile, Mike in Philly, don't fall for that hooey from T-Bird. He's just jealous. This topic is for any and all, even if you depend upon the NEWS and the quarterly reports. The NEWS is hooey, and who can figure out those ATC quarterlies? If you want to see a load of great news, look at the wire reports on 3DO these past weeks. Yet the stock is going down as fast as ATC, maybe faster. Or look at WDC, its news fooled the pros on Wall Street into thinking they'll be earning $2.50+ in 1995 -- ie a $35 - $40 stock. So why has it dropped like a brick? Watch this topic for the REAL whys. The GEnieLamp mid-month is in the library, file 32582 for mono, 32584 for color. Has charts of 16 stocks, as of last Friday, when they were mostly on the verge. I think most have smashed through the verge this past week, on the downside. --Sandy ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 204 Fri Apr 15, 1994 AEO.MAG [?] Travis [?] at 01:01 EDT //// Jim, I hear they're going to skip 2nd, and pop straight into 3rd gear soon. ;) //// Sandy, Taking these three cycles into consideration, when's the next time two of them are going to be uptrending? All three? If all three take off in the timeframe I'm thinking of, we may have ourselves a winner. --Travis ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 205 Fri Apr 15, 1994 J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 07:36 EDT In Message 195 on Thu Apr 14, 1994 K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] said: -| What do the charts say as far as how low Atari _can_ go? ZERO ! Look at what happened to CBU ... last trade was at $3, but it's been on hold for a week. Last bid I saw was something like 25c ... ------------ Category 14, Topic 44 Message 206 Fri Apr 15, 1994 ICDINC [Tom] at 10:28 EDT Jim Ness, While you may be close on the machine sales figures I would guess that Atari has easily shipped 10K+ Tempest cartridges already. Of course these were not all shipped through the online offer. :-) - TOM - ------------ -- Fred Horvat Free-Net Atari Portfolio Sigop Atari Classic Gamer And Let's Not Forget an ADAMite!